How will the next wave of AI Agent hype appear? Let's discuss some thoughts:
1) The continued antics of celebrity coins and various MEME coins will not bring a grand wealth feast, but will only drain the remaining liquidity in the market, mortgaging the progress and expectations of the bull market. Because, everyone expects the presidential coin to be a "certainty opportunity", focusing on its presidential reputation and real-world influence endorsement effect, but the logic is obviously flawed, as Trump has shown.
This type of coin cannot escape the zero-sum game, and the result will only make a small number of people make money, while the majority of retail investors are more likely to lose money and exit, which will exacerbate the structural collapse of the primary and secondary markets. The market will shift from a balance state driven by VC-driven Builders to a pure pump-and-dump token creation bubble mode, and after a mess, it will require a long time to rebuild.
2) The first wave of the AI Agent is the AI MEME craze represented by $GOAT and $ACT; the second wave is the AI Infra evolution narrative represented by #ai16z and #Virtual, with a series of value subdivision tracks such as monolithic AI applications, framework standards, chain-ization, and DeFai; for the third wave, I tend to be a breakthrough in a subdivision track of AI infra, and will take the high-threshold value creation path driven by VC + community.
Because, although ai16z has brought a wave of market heat with its open source community innovation as the cultural axis, the fact is that this wave of AI Agent hype has not shed its MEME nature, with a large number of wild Dev from web2 and die-hard speculative projects from web3 occupying the main stage, resulting in a large number of AI MEME projects disguised as "value-added" in the market in the short term. So when a simpler and more viral presidential coin MEME like $TRUMP appeared, the AI Infra market was quickly pushed back to its original form.
3) Why will it be VC + community dual-drive? Pure VC-driven coins will lose the early advantage of community-based MEME issuance, which is obviously not feasible, while pure MEME coin-driven will be quickly fast-tracked by the behind-the-scenes conspiracy groups to become a mess of a one-off, which will be even worse.
Only early VC entry to provide the project team with basic Build innovation expectations can reduce the Dev's financing needs in the MEME-based issuance phase, while also increasing the threshold for behind-the-scenes conspiracy groups to fast-track, ultimately enabling a healthy on-chain asset issuance and project empowerment balance model.
How to grasp such a balance point, and what form similar projects will emerge in, is still difficult to give an answer at the moment. But most likely, DeFi + AI (DeFai) will be a potential breakthrough subdivision track.
Because AI Agent's self-hosted control of assets can solve the human-caused Rug dilemma in traditional DeFi, while AI Agent's self-trading decision-making will concentrate the display of AI Agent's application capabilities, and most importantly, AI Agent is just taking on the new front-end of DeFi, while the back-end DeFi infrastructure and chain abstraction infrastructure has already been sufficiently mature, which can quickly validate the scenario landing value of AI Agent combined with Crypto.
Finally, although the AI Agent track has temporarily fallen into a slump, after a thorough reshuffle, it will be reborn with some projects that have excellent Dev, mature product-market fit development paths, and reasonable community asset incentive distribution schemes.
Of course, this is all based on the sustainable internal value proposition of the track, because only in this way, in the process of market technology innovation evolution, can the expected bull market be realized, and the majority of people can grasp their own opportunities.
Once the market departs from the core of value creation, the concept of "bull market" may no longer exist, because the short-term prosperity of pure Gambling speculation has nothing to do with bull and bear.
