After Trump took office, there was no significant policy promotion for the Altcoin market, except that the family WLFI fund kept buying coins, and there were also some scandals, with "possible collusion with the project party" as a market maker; Trump's son shilled and bought ETH, and the fund "is suspected of secretly cashing out" ETH. The Trump government's pressure on the SEC to cut interest rates also did not work, and the government agencies such as the established Cryptocurrency Committee were all big thunder and small rain.
Instead, the Trump government's macroeconomic policy of a strong US dollar and weak US stocks had a huge impact on Altcoins. The 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada, and then the back-and-forth delay in cancellation, made the Altcoin market turbulent. Even more deadly is that when BTC rebounded, the Altcoins "fell without rising", and most of the Altcoins hit new lows in nearly two years.
Many people are wondering: Is the bull market still there? In this cycle, the current situation is that the Trump-named meme coin has created a myth of getting rich, and Trump's call for an "eternal bull" makes people think of the myth of SHIB's getting rich and Coinbase's listing in the last bull market, which seems to be no different from the sword-seeking on a drifting boat. Is the bull market really still there? Will the Altcoins have a "day of redemption"? Let's see what the traders think.
Technical Analysis
@Xbt 886
The liquidity of Altcoins has not yet returned, and more Altcoin liquidity has chosen to exit and enter the liquidity of BTC.
@YSI_crypto
Around $92,000, which is the green area I drew in the chart. This belongs to the lower boundary of the overall range fluctuation, and if the price rebounds here, it can be used as an entry point, and stop loss if it breaks through. Currently, it is in the middle of the range, and both the bulls and bears are suffering, waiting for the right opportunity to enter.
@Patrade_Buer
BTC has completed the plunder of eqh. Short sellers, please pay attention to your positions, and longs focus on the opportunity to buy the dip.
@CryptosLaowai
Bitcoin is in a sideways market. The market logic is to find liquidity: where the most people are stop-loss and liquidated, Bitcoin's daily candle closed with two long-legged Doji, and the possibility of an upward move next week has increased. There is still a possibility of a final downward exploration in the short-term cycle, falling to around $94,600, and if it recovers above $95,600+, then the bullish trend will begin. Next week, if it rises, the target will be at least $100,500, and at most $103,000.
Data Analysis
@Andre_Dragosch
The largest BTC outflow from exchanges since 2024 has just occurred, with over 17,000 BTC leaving exchanges, 15,000 of which were from Coinbase, and large whales are buying the bottom here.
@Phyrex_Ni
The exchange's BTC balance has indeed plummeted after the price broke below $100,000, and is now close to the lowest point in nearly 6 years, spanning two late periods, indicating that more investors are choosing to hold after buying.
Macro Analysis
@Phyrex_Ni
The just-released non-farm payroll data is basically in line with expectations. The unemployment rate has dropped slightly to 4%, lower than the previous value, which is not very good, indicating that the current labor market is still very strong. The non-farm employment change was significantly lower than expected, which is still acceptable, and wage growth is also accelerating. Overall, the labor market has not shown obvious signs of cooling, which may not be in line with the expectations of some Fed officials. But it also shows the strength of the US economy.
The possibility of a rate cut in March is almost non-existent, which is actually within market expectations. Now the labor force data will further reduce the probability of a rate cut in March. To be honest, the current macroeconomic data is of limited help to the market. After all, Powell himself said that the focus on the labor market is not very large, so it's better to look at the inflation data, especially the housing inflation.
Overall, today's labor force data is positive for the economy, but not favorable for the Fed to increase the number of rate cuts.
@MaoShu_CN
First, after a week, the BTC market cap has basically remained unchanged, but the market and #ETH Altcoins have shrunk. Through the changes in the proportion, it is clear that BTC has absorbed a lot of market share, and its proportion has now broken through 58% and is closer to 59%. In contrast, the proportion of ETH has directly fallen below 10%, which is miserable.
In terms of trading volume, except that BTC still maintains a certain level of activity, the activity of ETH Altcoins has continued to decline, and the sentiment is poor.
In terms of capital, there has been a large increase, with an increase of $8.9 billion this week, and the total on-chain stablecoin amount is $231.5 billion.
USDT: The official website shows that the current market value is $141.355 billion, an increase of $1.951 billion compared to last Sunday, and the Asia-Europe market has recovered and seen inflows this week.
USDC: The data website shows that the funds have increased by $28.17 billion, and the US market has also maintained inflows.
Here is the English translation: After the employment data was released, BTC accompanied the rebound of the US stock market to break through, but the rise in inflation expectations triggered a decline in the risk market, and this week is likely to end with a decline, and the current price is still in a weak area! After the employment data is released tonight, although the data is not bullish, but since the downward trend of this week has basically cleared the bearish trend, as long as it is not bearish, the market will rebound again. After the data release, the market also showed this, and the short-term BTC price has broken through the 1 hour/4 hour interval. However, the inflation expectations of the University of Michigan immediately triggered inflation concerns in the risk market, causing the US stock market to fall, and BTC followed suit, directly interrupting the upward momentum of BTC's rebound, causing the current BTC price to still be in a weak area. The unemployment rate has declined, and non-farm employment is less than expected. Traders are betting on the recovery of the rate cut node, which is currently stuck in June this year, and it doesn't seem very stable. In other words, there is no need to wait for a rate cut in the first and second quarters, and the earliest will have to wait until the mid-June policy meeting.
