Important Events of the Week (2/2-2/8) at a Glance
US President Trump's move to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China triggered a panic sell-off in the crypto market. Bitcoin briefly plunged to $91,182, and the Altcoin market was severely hit, with the total daily contract liquidation exceeding $2.1 billion (Bybit CEO pointed out that due to API limitations, the actual liquidation amount could be between $80-100 billion).
At that time, USDT was trading at over 35 Taiwan dollars on the MAX platform in Taiwan (either to top up margin or to buy the dips), and Binance and OKX C2C platforms also saw significant premiums.
- Bitcoin: Analysts believe that BTC's dominance needs to reach 71% before the return of Altseason; the Czech Republic announced a 3-year capital gains tax exemption for Bitcoin holders; El Salvador revoked Bitcoin's legal tender status; MicroStrategy paused its Bitcoin accumulation, breaking a 12-week streak.
- Gold: Safe-haven demand surged, breaking through $2,850 to reach a new all-time high.
- Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged; a hawkish Bank of Japan official expects rates to be raised above 1% in the second half of this year.
- US Regulation: "Crypto Mom" proposed 10 regulatory priorities; a Fed governor said stablecoins could strengthen the US dollar's reserve currency status; the FDIC plans to revise guidelines to allow banks to participate in crypto and blockchain activities; the "Crypto Czar" said researching Bitcoin reserves is a top priority.
- Taiwan: Taiwan's ACE Exchange faced an employee salary delay incident.
- Trump: Postponed tariffs on Mexico and Canada for a month, signed an executive order to establish a US sovereign wealth fund.
- Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin reserves could become a "political nuclear weapon", and a change in administration could lead to a liquidation of holdings.
- Binance: He Yi publicly clarified rumors multiple times, with mixed reactions from the community.
Changes in the Trading Market Data This Week
Sentiment and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
The market sentiment indicator moved from 60 (Greed) to 44 (Neutral) this week, staying within the (Greed) and (Neutral) range throughout the week.
2. Sector Performance
Artemis data shows that the average decline of the blockchain sector this week was -24.0%, with the top three performing sectors being RWA (-2.6%), Centralized Exchange (-3.6%), and Exchange Tokens (-12.7%).
This week, the declines for Bitcoin and Ethereum were -5.5% and -17.6% respectively. The worst performing sector was Data Availability, with a decline of -34.2%. The next worst performers were File Storage (-33.3%) and Bridge (-31.2%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply
This week's data on the total cryptocurrency market cap shows a decline from $3.27 trillion to $3.2 trillion. BTC dominance is 59.74%, and ETH dominance is 10.48%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $199.7 billion to $204.13 billion this week.
2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges
Data shows that stablecoins have seen a continuous net inflow to exchanges this week, indicating that market participants may be preparing for potential price volatility. Stablecoin inflows to exchanges are often seen as a signal of increased buying power, suggesting potential upward pressure on the market in the short term.
However, compared to the peak of a single-day net inflow of $15.8 billion in December last year, market activity has slowed noticeably this week, with the highest single-day net inflow only reaching $1.87 billion. The influx of funds has weakened, and market sentiment has turned more cautious. Additionally, the lowest single-day net inflow of the week occurred on February 2nd, at only $240 million, continuing the low levels seen in late January.
3. Cryptocurrency Dynamics
In the cryptocurrency market this week, Litentry, Bella Protocol, and Otum led the gains with +31.5%, +15.9%, and +11.7% respectively.
CMC data shows that the current Altcoin Season Index is 32 (down -7 from last week).
The current bull market top signals are 0/30, with no top warning signals triggered yet.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows
This week, Bitcoin ETF flows saw an inflow of $325 million.
2. Bitcoin Open Interest Falls Below $60 Billion
According to data, as Bitcoin prices fell this week, the total open interest across the network has decreased to $57.82 billion, roughly back to the levels seen in November last year.
4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($97,000) is in the "Consider DCA" range.
5. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has mostly remained in positive territory, indicating relatively strong demand in the US market, which has improved compared to last week. After the sharp Bitcoin drop on February 3rd, the index briefly broke into positive territory, but then fell back into the positive range, reflecting a noticeable increase in US investors' buying power for Bitcoin.
Note: A positive premium may indicate that US investors' buying power is stronger than the global market, but based on historical data, if the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, that is usually a buying opportunity.
6. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss
The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator suggests that market sentiment is showing signs of recovery. Recently, Bitcoin prices have been fluctuating at high levels, and the net realized profit/loss has gradually rebounded after falling from its January highs, reflecting that investors have realized some profits during the recent price adjustments, and the market is in a stage of alternating profit-taking and re-positioning.
This week, the net realized profit/loss has remained in the range of $600 million to $900 million, indicating that the overheated market sentiment has cooled somewhat, and investors have become more cautious. However, the decrease in the negative value range also suggests that selling pressure has eased, and potential buying momentum may be accumulating, providing support for the future market.
7. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
On-chain data shows that the net change in holdings of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) has continued to be negative this week, indicating that selling pressure has not yet fully subsided. However, compared to the concentrated selling seen in December last year, the recent selling pressure has weakened, suggesting that long-term holders are entering a phase of cooling selling after realizing profits at higher price levels.
It is worth noting that despite the continued rise in Bitcoin prices, long-term holders have not shown any significant re-accumulation behavior, reflecting a cautious attitude towards the current price levels. If the selling pressure further eases in the coming weeks, the possibility of long-term holders resuming their accumulation could provide positive momentum for Bitcoin prices and offer potential support for the upward trend.
8. Bitcoin On-Chain Buying Power
According to on-chain data, the supply of Short-Term Holders (STH) has continued to increase, indicating rising market activity and more capital flowing into short-term trading positions.
In contrast, the supply of Long-Term Holders (LTH) has decreased significantly since last December, suggesting that some long-term holders have chosen to realize profits at higher levels. This phenomenon indicates that the market is in a stage of capital rotation, and the reduction in LTH positions may provide liquidity to the short-term market, but it also potentially increases selling pressure, so the subsequent capital flow and position structure changes and their impact on market sentiment need to be closely monitored.
This Week's Market Analysis News
1. Trump's Tariff War Bloodbath! Bitcoin Drops Below $96,000, Ethereum Loses $2,900, XRP Plunges 20%... Over 450,000 Liquidated for $120 Million
After U.S. President Trump officially sounded the alarm on tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China last week, the cryptocurrency market has continued to plummet. Bitcoin briefly dipped to $95,432 this morning, while other altcoins saw even more severe declines. (Continue reading)
2. Altcoin Collapse》Ethereum Erases Half-Year Gains, XRP Plunges 40% in a Day, SOL Drops Below $180, 710,000 Liquidated for Over $200 Million
After U.S. President Trump officially sounded the alarm on tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China last week, the panic selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market has continued, with Bitcoin briefly dipping to $91,182 and the Altcoin market being bloodbathed. (Continue reading)
3. Liquidation Data Severely Underestimated? Bybit: About $8-10 Billion Liquidated Across the Network Yesterday, Exchange Data Lacks Transparency
The cryptocurrency market experienced a flash crash yesterday. Coinglass data showed that the total contract liquidation amount across the crypto market exceeded $200 million. However, Bybit CEO Ben Zhou said earlier that the exchange's liquidation data was inaccurate, and the actual total liquidation amount across the network should be around $8-10 billion, due to API limitations at exchanges. (Continue reading)
4. Bitcoin Flash Crashes to $91,000》USDT-TWD Briefly Surges Above 35, Binance and OKX C2C Premiums Exceed 6%
The cryptocurrency market experienced a flash crash today, with USDT-TWD briefly surging above 35 on the MAX, and significant premiums on the Binance and OKX C2C platforms. Meanwhile, Ethereum gas fees spiked from around 13 Gwei to nearly 300 Gwei. (Continue reading)
5. MicroStrategy Refinances $560 Million at 8% Annual Interest, But Breaks 12-Week Bitcoin Accumulation Record, Why?
The Bitcoin-holding giant MicroStrategy successfully raised $563 million through a preferred stock offering last week. However, MicroStrategy did not purchase any Bitcoin last week, breaking its 12-week streak of continuous Bitcoin accumulation that began in late October last year. Why? (Continue reading)
6. Crypto Czar David Sacks Establishes the "Trump New Era": Researching Bitcoin Reserves, Digital Assets and Stablecoins Will Make the Dollar Greater
American AI and cryptocurrency czar David Sacks held his first press conference since taking office on the 4th, outlining plans to ensure America's dominance in the digital asset space. He stated that researching the feasibility of Bitcoin reserves is one of the top priorities given to him by the President, and it will be part of an internal working group. (Continue reading)
Cryptocurrency Regulatory Updates Around the World
1. Bitcoin Kingdom Dream Shattered! El Salvador Quietly Repeals BTC Legal Tender Status, Becoming the World's First Country to Revoke Bitcoin's Legal Tender
2. Chinese Court: Cryptocurrency Contracts are Illegal Gambling! BKEX Exchange Employees Sentenced for "Opening a Casino"
A court in Hunan, China recently ruled that BKEX's contract trading constitutes "gambling behavior", and sentenced multiple employees and agents on charges of "opening a casino". Legal experts analyze: Could frequent participation in contract trading by individuals also potentially constitute gambling crimes? (Continue reading)
3. He Yi Responds to "Five Major Corruption Scandals of Binance Listing": Illegal Employees Will Definitely Go to Jail, Let Them Be Disgraced!
Recently, an anonymous exposé accused Binance Labs of issues like listing payoffs and internal corruption. In response, Binance co-founder He Yi published a lengthy article to clarify the recent controversies surrounding Binance Labs and the industry's development. (Continue reading)
Next Week's Market Focus (U.S. Inflation Data)
2/11 (Tuesday)
- U.S.: Fed Chair Powell Testimony
2/12 (Wednesday)
- U.S.: January Core CPI (MoM), Previous 0.2%
- U.S.: January CPI (YoY), Previous 2.9%
- U.S.: January CPI (MoM), Previous 0.4%
- U.S.: Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, Previous 8.664M
2/13 (Thursday)
- United Kingdom: Q4 GDP (YoY), previous 0.9%
- United Kingdom: Q4 GDP (QoQ), previous 0.0%
- United Kingdom: December GDP (MoM), previous 0.1%
- Germany: January CPI (MoM), forecast -0.2%, previous 0.5%
- US: Initial Jobless Claims, previous 219K
- US: January PPI (MoM), previous 0.2%
2/14 (Friday)
- US: January Core Retail Sales (MoM), previous 0.4%
- US: January Retail Sales (MoM), previous 0.4%
Recommended Events
【BlockTempo Bitcoin Series #2】After El Salvador became the world's first country to revoke BTC as legal tender! How will the integration of Bitcoin and fiat currency develop? (Registration Link)
Under the pressure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and economic realities, El Salvador quietly revoked the legal tender status of Bitcoin, marking a major turning point in the country's "Bitcoin experiment". What will the future development of the integration of Bitcoin and fiat currency be like?
Time: February 12, Wednesday
