Author: Haotian
Falling incessantly, the AI Agent track is oppressed like a dark cloud pressing down on the city, causing people to feel heartbroken and desperate to the point of being unable to breathe. Everyone wants to know, what's going on? Unfortunately, no one can answer this question. I will only analyze the adverse factors currently facing the AI Agent track, as well as some Holder's post-market operation guidelines for reference:
Adverse Factors:
1) The disruption and bloodsucking of the $TRUMP coin has broken the narrative evolution rhythm of the AI Agent, which is undoubtedly the biggest external factor. Due to the lack of on-chain liquidity and the blockage of CEX, when a bunch of celebrity MEME coins appeared, most people would FOMO sell their AI Agent holdings to chase the new coins. This cycle has destroyed the stable settlement and development environment of the AI Agent;
2) The MEME-ized asset issuance model of "speed-through flow" has lost its value anchoring, which is an unavoidable internal factor. On the one hand, the evolution speed of the AI Agent narrative is too fast, going through a full cycle from pure AI MEME to single AI, framework standards, DeFai, MetAiverse, GameFai and other sub-tracks in just three months, without enough time to build technical value support and realize landing; On the other hand, under the premise of no value support, "speed-through flow" has become the inevitable path for most projects, just because the Dev provides a Github Repo and a vision statement, they can speed through to 50m-300m? This has made the projects lose real value judgment, and can only operate based on some PVP one-two stage methodologies. In the end, many good projects face the predicament of being beaten to a pulp after speed-through, and it may be difficult for the Dev to push positive news to drive them at this time;
Of course, there are also macroeconomic factors such as the overall market downturn and the collective withdrawal of liquidity from high-risk preference assets on the chain.
In short, whether it's external or internal adverse factors, they have turned an originally expected PVE-valued new AI infrastructure market into an indiscriminate PVP Gambling market, and the current despair, torment and helplessness are proving this.
Post-market Operation Guidelines:
After clarifying the big picture, it should be clear that there is no point in worrying whether the AI Agent track will go to zero. Because good PVE targets will only be "hibernating" under the pressure of the overall environment in the short term, and bad PVP targets may also "rise from the dead" from the many assets on the verge of zero. So what should we do next?
1) Look for good targets with value anchoring support, that's right, you have to find the gold in the trash. Even if trash projects can be pumped up to a high level by conspiracy groups in an upward trend, the possibility of value targets "emerging" in a downward trend is greater, such as: find projects that are still continuously building and releasing positive news in a severe downturn environment, find projects where the Dev is still continuously innovating despite the passive secondary environment, find projects where the on-chain holding addresses are still growing in the continuous downtrend, etc.
2) Reorganize your Portfolio, decisively give up the illusion of junk assets, and switch to value coins. You need to understand that even if the AI Agent makes a strong comeback, some junk assets will definitely become abandoned children, only projects with value support can be revived. Take the opportunity of the crash to narrow the scope of your holdings, focus your bullets on some high-value assets, at least there is a chance to break even. You can refer to the diversification logic I shared before.
3) Stop FOMO-ing into new speed-through flow projects, when the entire track is in a downward trend, what reason do retail investors have to believe that a project that has speed-through to hundreds of millions in value is rational? Moreover, the high FDV VC coin projects on the chain and those on the exchange are not much different. The big opportunity on the chain refers to the opportunity to discover quality Alpha projects ahead of others, the risk of FOMO-ing in is more dangerous than the secondary market.
4) Sit and wait patiently, the AI Agent track has lasting and far-reaching significance for Crypto, the big trend cannot be changed, I have reiterated this view many times in my previous articles, no need to elaborate further. If you can do 1, 2, 3, you just need to wait for the opportunity, nothing else.
