Reviewing recent major events in the crypto market: Where is the bull market going?

Here is the English translation of the text, with the terms in <> retained as is: The Table of Contents of this Article 1. DeepSeek Burst the Bubble 2. The Motley Crew of the President and the President 3. A Top Signal: A High School Boy Earns Millions 4. Doubts about BN and BN's Response 5. The Script for the Future 6. My Position Allocation 7. Cruel Perspective: The Good Old Days of the Old Registrants Are Over 8. Best Position: 50% + 50% Stablecoin Wealth Management 9. Finally In the past week, many friends have called me to inquire about the market situation, and I feel it is necessary to publicly share my thoughts and reveal my views on the current market situation - [What has changed] [The script for the future] Those who have been following me for a long time know that I am a long-term investor. So, since 2019, I have had an annual strategy update, and 2024-2025 is probably this one, for sharing and discussing with my family. 1. DeepSeek Burst the Bubble When DeepSeek came out, regardless of whether it is true that they spent $5 million to train such an AI, the narrative is like this: [Algorithm Advancement] at least temporarily defeated [Computing Power Advancement]. You don't have to be obsessed with whether this thing is real - since the market unanimously recognizes the $5 million, you have to take it as true. By the end of 2024 in the crypto industry, apart from , I am unwilling to admit but objectively, the only narrative left is the AI Agent, which can be said to be the last hope of the village. However, no one expected that the AI Agent would be ruthlessly crushed by the real AI track's DeepSeek. The DeepSeek team is full of real IQ 200, fresh graduates from Tsinghua and Peking University, and medal winners in the International Mathematical Olympiad. In contrast, the people we worship in this industry are the second-string engineers who are idle at home, the AI engineers who were fired from big factories or secretly engaged in side businesses, so sometimes we are forced to have an IQ of 50. So... On January 27, I tearfully took profits on all my AI token positions. I didn't sell at the highest point, and the drawdown was painful, but it's a lie to say it didn't hurt. But the more cruel fact is that this thing has turned our entire AI Agent track into a joke, and this is probably true. The reason why "narrative" comes before "event" is that this "event" has not yet landed, and can only rely on "narrative". Once the story can no longer be told, the decline of the track is truly irreversible. 2. The Motley Crew of the President and the President I don't know how everyone felt during the Chinese New Year, but my physical experience is that many relatives and friends are asking how to register for BN or OKX, because they want to buy Trump coins. The last time they were so crazy was during the National Day, when they wanted to open accounts and charge into the A-shares. If I remember correctly, those brave warriors who entered the market on October 8 are still hanging on that peak. After taking profits on AI, to be honest, I became more and more afraid, and then I saw this post. The gist is: The president seems to be losing money, but the reasons may be: 1. He doesn't make money through the channels you can see 2. He's an idiot Anyway, I know the answer can't possibly be 2. Yes! is now what the president is playing, and he can even make money through channels unknown to us. Frankly, can our players sit at the same table as Trump? A Thai hippopotamus, an American squirrel, a longevity drug that extends the lifespan of flies, can they really sit at the same table as Trump, who sits in the Oval Office? It's Chinese New Year, the adults at one table, the children at another. The adults drink fine wine, the children can only drink Sprite. So on that day, I basically sold off my positions as well. My position had once made huge floating profits, but because I actively lowered my IQ to 50, I didn't complete the great retreat, but kept joining the great revolution. It feels like a dream.

III. A Top Signal: A High School Boy Makes Millions

I believe that all the meme players, and even those who don't play meme, have heard about this recent legendary story.

A high school boy, after sitting idle for a month, suddenly hit the jackpot on Jelly, making millions with a very low cost.

Of course, as the story spread, it became more and more exaggerated, and there were more and more rumors. I'm not 100% sure it's true, but I know the taste is right.

Looking back on the 69K historical top in 2021, 1-3 days before, I was sighing:

• An intern, with returns easily outperforming fund managers
• A grassroots contributor to ENS, receiving an airdrop worth millions

At that time

Just like

Now

I liked this post, and a TIME editor (or possibly a hacker) was able to immediately harvest countless SOL with a fake tweet.

I ask you, what does this mean?

It's not that making money is wrong - experts can always make money, even at the bottom of a bear market.

But if the subject becomes ordinary people:

An intern making big money, an ENS contributor making big money, a high school boy making big money, a small editor making big money.

It means: [At this moment, everyone's hands are particularly loose]

Friends who play cards often know that it's only when the floating profit is extremely high that they become loose-handed.

This represents the greed index reaching a true peak.

This is a super top signal.

So on the 30th, I cleared out almost all my Altcoins, only keeping BTC and a small portion of mainstream coins ETH/SOL/DOGE/exchange coins.

Although there are still losses, at least I have left some victory fruits.

I admire the brilliant operation of the high school boy, and I also revere the iron law of this alternative investment market.

IV. Doubts about BN and BN's Response

Ah, to be honest, I don't want to talk about this topic.

As a former CEX practitioner, I've seen this consultant - listing - dumping routine too many times, from the initial anger to the subsequent numbness, it's nothing new to me.

But in the past, this thing was kept under the table, belonging to "small greed and small corruption are the lubricants of development";

Belonging to "when the water is clear, there are no fish", the water is slightly turbid under the surface, which is part of the rules of the game.

After all, we are not living in a utopia, not in a vacuum homeland.

But the thing that is most taboo is to take it from under the table and put it on the table.

I don't intend to criticize Binance or the Empress, because this exists in almost every CEX.

If this were in the traditional world, exaggeratedly speaking, it would be a huge scandal that could immediately lay off hundreds of people and send dozens to jail.

Maybe the Empress would have been better off not responding, learning from the celebrities' cold treatment, still leaving some hope for the retail investors.

But our industry is already dominated by skeptics, and a huge scandal is a heavy blow, heavily pounding on the hearts of every holder.

It has shattered the faith of many people.

Our industry really needs "gods", because it is sustained by consensus.

But when everyone finds out that the public servants under the "gods" also want to make some quick money, the faith suddenly vanishes, and it is quickly projected onto the "gods" - all the Altcoins on BN are now facing a huge skepticism and scrutiny from retail investors. If AI and HOOK are like this, will the other coins really be any better?

V. The Future Script

If we take the "clinging to the sword in the river" perspective, this drop is very similar to 5.19, and I suggest everyone to review the trend after 5.19 themselves.

Trend after 5.19 2021, source: Bitfinex

If following the 5.19 script, the next will be a repeated and sustained two-month volatility drama, until even the most loyal are washed out, then a new $Bitcoin ATH will come.

Of course, some suspect this is the 12.4 script, AKA the beginning of a bear market.

From my inner inclination, I hope this is 5.19.

After all, the matter of Bitcoin as the US national strategic reserve is moving towards clarity, never underestimate the huge impact of this.

Even if Bitcoin reaches 85K-88K, I'm still willing to add some positions.

VI. My Position Distribution

My current positions:

• 40% BTC
• 20% Mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB/MNT)
• 40% Stablecoin lending

Bitcoin is my eternal faith, I think I will never sell BTC again, nor will I do any more swing trading.

The reason for keeping ETH:

To be honest, my faith in ETH is weakening.

However, objectively speaking, the President's DeFi project is buying ETH.

I don't know how many of you family members are trading US stocks, many people regret not following [Nancy Pelosi, the Goddess of Congress].

Image source: CommonWealth Magazine

Pelosi's heyday was as Speaker of the House, which is only the third position in the US political arena.

And now Trump is the legitimate President, this crypto President is holding a large position in ETH (although he has deposited it into an untraceable Coinbase custody), this weight cannot be underestimated.

Secondly, ETH has already fallen to its current position, and I feel that it has reached the extreme point of FUD, and there may be a rebound. I can't buy when no one is asking, but at least don't sell when no one is asking.

Reasons for holding SOL:

• There is a small probability that an ETF may be possible;
• But the cooling of AI narratives and the short-term decline of MEME are two small clouds.

Reasons for holding DOGE:

• Grayscale has already launched a Dogecoin trust, and Doge also has a small probability of an ETF
• In addition, Musk is working hard in the D.O.G.E department;
• And being on the same car as the world's richest man and the "chairman of the US NDRC", I think I can sleep well.

Reasons for holding exchange tokens:

To be frank, there is no possibility for exchanges to reach a larger stage.

Coinbase will not list BNB, and Binance will not list MNT.

But exchanges are the only institutions in our industry that can make money and give back;

If the bear market really comes, exchange tokens will be relatively more resistant to declines, and the occasional IEO can also recover some losses, and we can only rely on this to get through the bear market.

7. Cruel Perspective: The Good Old Days of the Old Timers Are Over

Except for the above, I will most likely not hold any Altcoins in large positions in the short term - the reason is also very simple, inflation is too fast.

The speed of new users and new capital entering the market is simply no match for the speed of these token issuance maniacs printing.

Source: Decrypt

A few days ago, there was a statistic that the most aggressive account on Pump Fun had issued 17,000 tokens in 3 months.

Not 170, not 1700, but 17,000! His contribution alone may exceed the total token issuance of the entire 2017 bull market.

Why has the investment strategy of the old timers become ineffective?

Too many choices!

Too many angles!

Even the same angle has countless contract addresses,

How can the old timers' Altcoins compete?

The old timers' favorite strategy: buy a mid-cap Altcoin at the $100M, $200M level.

Hold it for 2-3 months, betting that it will outperform Bitcoin.

However, now it is probably impossible to even outperform ETH.

And General P's favorite strategy: buy a $10K valuation project on the inner ring.

Run away in 30 minutes.

Real men never look back at the explosion.

Obviously, in the face of the hyperinflation of tokens today, General P far surpasses the old timers.

I'm not advocating that everyone become a P-soldier, I just hope that at least everyone won't be an old timer.

8. Best Position: 50% BTC + 50% Stablecoin Financing

In addition, I sincerely advise everyone to hold a certain amount of stablecoins to get through the coming period.

You have to accept the fact that no one can really sell at the super top.

There is a top every 4 years, and in the over 1,000 days, let you find a day to sell, the probability of 1/1,000, those who can do it are naturally few and far between, all of them are super lucky.

At this stage, a half-position is the best choice.

You invest 50% of your principal in financing, we don't talk about mining or doing any arbitrage.

We just do the simplest Ethena USDE, now Pendle can still offer an 18% interest rate.

If you're too lazy to mess with Pendle, just throw it into AAVE or the mainstream CEX financing, there's still 10%.

The other 50% is mainly in Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day when the US Bitcoin strategic reserve arrives.

With both interest cash flow,

And dreams and beliefs,

You must be comfortable,

Definitely.

Of course, you can also allocate 5% to the Altcoin you truly believe in, whether it's ETH, SOL, DOGE or any other belief coin.

Allocate another 5% of the funds to go PVP a couple of times, win it stylishly, lose it as consumption, keep your hand in, isn't that great?

Finally, form this kind of yin-yang distribution.

PS: This is also the shape I want to slowly adjust my own position to Source: 0xTodd

9. Finally

I'm quite satisfied with my current position, after all, this is my 8th year in the crypto industry, and after so much ups and downs, I do have some experience.

The only thing I feel a little regretful about is that I've been playing in Osaka these past few days during the New Year, being lazy, and didn't organize these thoughts and release them in a timely manner.

The same strategy, if I had said it a few days ago, it might have helped a lot of people, but a few days later it becomes an after-the-fact review.

But it's not too late to make up for the lost sheep.

I hope that every family member can get their own big results in the crypto market.

Of course, if you can't get the big results, then keep some small results, earn more spiritual wealth and social wealth, it's not a wasted trip either.

Finally, I wish all family members - in the Year of the Snake, may the golden snake dance wildly.

Todd

February 5, 2025