Recent week, many friends called me to inquire about the market situation, and I feel it is necessary to publicly share my thoughts and disclose my views on the current market situation - For a long time, my family members who have been following me know that I am a long-term investor. So since 2019, I have had an annual strategy that is updated every year, and 2024-2025 is probably this one, for sharing and discussing with my family. I. DeepSeek Burst the Bubble When DeepSeek came out, regardless of whether it really used $5 million to train such an AI, the narrative is like this: at least in the short term defeated . You don't have to be obsessed with whether this thing is real - since the market unanimously recognizes the $5 million, you have to take it as true. By the end of 2024 in our industry, apart from , I am reluctant to admit but objectively there is only one narrative left: , which is the hope of the whole village. However, no one expected that the was ruthlessly crushed by DeepSeek from the neighboring true track. The DeepSeek team is full of real IQ200, fresh graduates from Tsinghua and Peking University, and medal winners of the International Mathematical Olympiad. In contrast, the ones we worship in this industry are second-tier programmers who are idle at home, AI engineers who were fired from big factories or secretly engaged in sideline businesses, so sometimes we are forced to be IQ50. So... On January 27, I tearfully took profit on all my positions. I didn't sell at the highest point, and the drawdown was painful. But the more cruel fact is that this thing has turned our entire track into a joke, and this is probably true. II. The Mob of Presidents and Presidents I don't know how everyone felt during the New Year, but my physical feeling is that many relatives and friends are asking how to register on or , because they want to buy . The last time they were so crazy was during the National Day, when they wanted to open accounts and rush into the A-share market. If I'm not mistaken, those brave warriors who entered the A-share market on October 8 are still hanging on that mountain top. After taking profit on , to be honest, I became more and more afraid, and then I saw this post. The gist is: The president seems to be in trouble, but for two possible reasons: 1. He doesn't make money through the ways you can see; 2. He is an idiot. Anyway, I know the answer can't possibly be 2. Yes! is now what the president is playing, and he can also make money through channels unknown to us. Frankly, can our players sit at the same table with Trump? Can a Thai hippopotamus, an American squirrel, and a longevity drug that extends the life of flies really sit at the same table as Trump, who is firmly seated in the Oval Office? During the New Year, the adults have one table, the children have another. The adults drink fine wines, and the children can only drink Sprite. So on that day, I basically sold off my positions as well. My position used to have huge floating profits, but because I actively lowered my IQ to 50, I didn't complete the great retreat, but kept joining the great revolution. It feels like a dream. III. A Top Signal: A High School Boy Earns Tens of Millions I believe that all the family members who play , and even those who don't play , have heard about this legendary story recently. A high school boy, after joining and sitting still for a month, suddenly hit the jackpot on , with a super low cost and won tens of millions. Of course, the story gets more and more exaggerated as it spreads, and there are more and more rumors. I'm not 100% sure it's true, but I know the taste is right. Reviewing the 69K historical top in 2021, 1-3 days before, I was sighing: - Interns, with returns easily outperforming fund managers; - grassroots community contributors, got airdrops worth millions. At that time and now, it is just like this. I liked this tweet, where a TIME editor (or possibly a hacker) could immediately harvest countless with a fake tweet. What does this mean? It's not that making money is wrong - masters can always make money, even at the bottom of a bear market. But if the subject becomes ordinary people: intern boys making big money, contributors making big money, high school boys making big money, editor boys making big money. It means: . Experienced poker players all know that it is only when the floating profits are extremely high that they will become loose-handed. This represents the greed index reaching a true peak. This is a super top signal. So on the 30th, I cleared out almost all my , only keeping and a small portion of mainstream coins . Although there are still losses, at least I have left some victory fruits. I admire the brilliant operation of the high school boy, and I also revere the iron law of this alternative investment market. IV. Doubts about and 's Response As a former practitioner, I have seen this advisor-listing-dumping routine too many times, from the initial anger to the gradual numbness, it is no longer surprising. But in the past, this thing was placed under the table, belonging to "small greed and small corruption is the lubricant of development"; Belonging to "when the water is clear, there are no fish", the slight turbidity under the water surface is part of the game rules. After all, we are not living in a utopia, not in a vacuum homeland. But the thing that is most taboo is to take it from under the table to the tabletop. I have no intention of criticizing or the "sister", because this exists in almost every . If this were in the traditional world, to put it exaggeratedly, it would be a huge scandal that could immediately lay off hundreds of people and dozens of people in shackles. Maybe the "sister" would be better off not responding, learning from the celebrities' cold treatment, still giving the retail investors a glimmer of hope. But our industry is already dominated by skeptics, and a huge scandal is a heavy blow, ruthlessly pounding on the hearts of every . It has shattered the faith of many people. Our industry really needs "gods", because it is sustained by consensus. But when everyone finds out that the "public servants" under the "gods" also want to make some quick money, the faith suddenly vanishes, and it is quickly projected onto the "gods" related - all the on are now facing a huge skepticism and scrutiny from retail investors. If and are like this, will the other coins really be any better?

V. The Future Script

If we follow the "clinging to the sword in the river" perspective, this drop is very similar to 5.19, and I suggest that everyone review the trend after 5.19 themselves.

If we follow the 5.19 script, the next step will be a repeated and sustained two-month volatility plot, until even the most loyal people are washed out, and then a new $Bitcoin ATH will come.

Of course, some people suspect this is the 12.4 plot, AKA the beginning of the bear market.

From my inner tendency, I hope this is 5.19. After all, the matter of Bitcoin as the US national strategic reserve is moving towards clarity, and we should never underestimate the huge impact of this. Even if Bitcoin reaches 85K-88K, I would be willing to add some more positions.

VI. My Position Distribution

My current positions:

40% BTC; 20% mainstream coins (ETH, SOL, DOGE, BNB/MNT); 40% stablecoin finance;

Bitcoin is my eternal faith, and I think I will never sell BTC again, nor will I do any more wave trading. The reason for keeping ETH: to be honest, my faith in ETH is weakening.

However, objectively speaking, the president's DeFi project is buying ETH.

I don't know how many of you family members are trading US stocks, but many people regret not following [Nancy Pelosi, the Goddess of Congress Stocks].

Pelosi's heyday was as Speaker of the House, which is only the third-ranking position in American politics.

And now Trump is the legitimate president, this crypto president, is holding a large position in ETH (although he has already deposited it into an untraceable Coinbase custody), this weight is not to be underestimated.

Secondly, ETH has fallen to its current position, and I feel it has reached the extreme of FUD, and there may be a rebound. I can't buy when no one cares, but at least don't sell when no one cares.

The reason for keeping SOL: there is a small probability that an ETF may come; but the cooling of the AI narrative and the short-term decline of MEME are two small clouds.

The reason for keeping DOGE: Grayscale has already launched a Dogecoin trust, and Doge also has a small probability of an ETF;

In addition, Musk is working hard in the D.O.G.E department; and being on the same car as the world's richest man and the "US NDRC chairman", I think I can sleep well.

The reason for keeping exchange tokens: to be blunt, exchanges have no chance of getting on a bigger stage. Coinbase will not list BNB, and Binance will not list MNT. But exchanges are the only institutions in our industry that can make money and give back. If the bear market really comes, exchange tokens will be relatively more resistant to declines, and the occasional IEO can even recover some blood, relying on this to get through the bear market.

VII. Cruel View: The Good Days of the Old Holders Are Over

Except for the above, I will most likely not hold any Altcoins in large positions in the short term - the reason is also very simple, inflation is too fast.

The speed of new users and new capital entering the market is simply no match for the speed of these coin minting maniacs printing coins.

The other day there was a statistic that the best account on pump fun had issued 17,000 coins in 3 months. Not 170, not 1700, but 17,000! His contribution alone may exceed the total issuance of tokens in the entire 2017 bull market. Why has the investment strategy of the old holders become ineffective?

There are too many choices! Too many angles!

Even for the same angle, there are N CAs, how can the old holders' Altcoins compete?

The favorite strategy of the old holders: buy a mid-cap Altcoin at $100M or $200M. Hold it for 2-3 months, betting that it will outperform Bitcoin. However, now it may not even be able to outperform ETH.

And General P's favorite strategy: buy a 10K valuation project on the domestic exchange. Run away 30 minutes later. Real men never look back at the explosion. Obviously, in the face of the current Altcoin hyperinflation, General P is far superior to the old holders. I'm not advocating that everyone become a P-soldier, I just hope that at least everyone won't be an old holder.

VIII. Best Position: 50% BTC + 50% Stablecoin Finance

In addition, I sincerely advise everyone to hold a certain amount of stablecoins to get through the coming period. You have to accept the fact that no one can really sell at the super top.

The mountain top is once every 4 years, and in the 1,000-plus days, you have to find a day to sell, a 1/1000 probability, and those who can do it are naturally few and far between, all of them are super lucky. At this stage, a 50% position is the best choice. You invest 50% of your principal in finance, and we won't talk about mining or doing any arbitrage.

We'll just do the simplest Ethena USDE, and now Pendle can still offer an 18% interest rate. If you're too lazy to mess with Pendle, just throw it into AAVE or the mainstream CEX finance, and you'll still have 10%. The other 50% will be mainly in Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day when the US Bitcoin strategic reserve arrives.

With both interest cash flow and dreams and beliefs, you must be comfortable and packed.

Of course, you can also carve out 5% to allocate to the Altcoin you truly believe in, whether it's ETH, SOL, DOGE or any other faith coin. And carve out 5% of the funds to PVP a couple of times, win and be cool, lose and treat it as consumption, keep your hand in, isn't it great?

Finally, form this Taiji-like distribution.

IX. Finally

I'm quite satisfied with my current position, after all, this is my 8th year in the crypto industry, and after so much precipitation, I do have some experience. The only thing I regret a bit is that I've been playing in Osaka these past few days and have been lazy, not organizing these thoughts and releasing them in a timely manner.

The same strategy, if I had said it a few days ago, it might have helped a lot of people, but a few days later it becomes post-mortem analysis. But it's never too late to make up for lost time.

I hope that every family member can get their own big results in the crypto market. Of course, if you can't get the big results, then keeping some small results, earning more spiritual wealth and social wealth, is also not in vain. Finally, I wish all family members - in the Year of the Snake, the golden snake dances wildly.

Todd

February 5, 2025

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