Source: Zuoye Waiboshan
I used to think that map expansion was exclusive to small islands, but I didn't expect the world's hegemon to follow this old example; I used to think that the ETH L2 ecosystem was chaotic enough, but I didn't expect the global trade system to be gradually disintegrating; I used to think that Web3 settlement was just a dream, but I didn't expect stablecoins to have become the new pillar.
On February 1, 2025, Trump began "fulfilling his promises" by increasing tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with an additional 25% tariff on imports from the two countries, except for Canadian energy products.
Although Trump's style has always been to apply maximum pressure, the tariffs may not necessarily be 100% realized, but once the bow is drawn, there is no turning back. Trump 2.0's core economic thinking is to use tariffs to replace "domestic taxes" and bring the US back to the good old days without the IRS.
Of course, Americans are not so naive as to believe Trump's rhetoric and really think that increasing tariffs and price stability can coexist. In a completely deindustrialized America, any commodity is an imported product, and the entire country, from the imperial court to the people, has already entered a kind of quasi-wartime state. Temporary pain is necessary to win the final victory.
Crypto Wartime Economy
After the start of the Tariff War 2.0, the crypto market was hit the hardest, with BTC falling to $97,000, and the entire market entering a downward cycle, as weak as the traditional A-shares.
In theory, the crypto market is a global market, and even if one is not optimistic about the US tariff war against the whole world, there should still be a massive influx of funds into the market for hedging, but the premise is that the crypto world is indeed a global market.
Unfortunately, the emergence of DeepSeek has shattered the stereotypical impression that the US stock market is a global market. If people's memory is good enough, they will remember that not long ago, on December 26, 2024, when DeepSeek V3 released its technical report, the crypto world was the first industry to accept and recognize its advanced nature, even earlier than the general public.
At this time, the AI Agents are still thriving, but the real crisis is that $TRUMP and DeepSeek R1 were launched back-to-back, from January 17 to January 20, a mere three days, the world experienced two shocks: the president is really going to issue a coin, and China's AI will temporarily lead the US.
Or to put it this way, the crypto world's narrative of AI Agents is based on two premises:
The US's AI is the global leader, and the AI Agents are first and foremost Pax Americana AI Agents, requiring OpenAI to maintain its lead in algorithms and NVIDIA chips to be irreplaceable;
AI Agents have not generated real profits, nor have they attracted real users, and the liquidity drained by $TRUMP will not flow back blindly, it is still a narrative economics, not a PMF product.
The world line converges, returning to the trade war.
In the face of the dramatic decline of the US stock market's Magnificent 7 giants like NVIDIA, the AI Agent track, the chaos of the Ethereum Foundation and Binance, all seem insignificant.
NVIDIA's chips, the price of BTC, if this is Plan A and Plan B of the US revitalization plan, they are currently all being questioned, and the only solution is to re-establish the confidence of the global capital market in the US.
Tariffs and trade wars will only be the first step, the core is the rise of the US stock market and interest rate cuts. The US needs to cut interest rates to stabilize the economy, but at the same time, as a global financial country, the stock market cannot have any problems, and can only go up, not down, so there is only the option of a rise in the US stock market.
In normal economic theory, these two options are not easy to achieve simultaneously, but the magical $TRUMP can bypass the existing fiscal-monetary system, and the tariffs and trade wars will create government revenue in the short term, and there is also Musk's mass layoffs, the remaining funds can only be gathered into the capital market, unless someone really goes to the US to open a factory.
In this system, the short-term driving force is that the tariffs need to take effect, so it can be inferred that even if Canada compromises with Trump, Trump's tariffs on the rest of the world will only escalate.
In the long run, the fiscal role of cryptocurrencies will be inevitable, either the US dollar-Federal Reserve system will break free of its nominal independence and forge closer political cooperation with Trump, or the Trump government will continue to use unconventional means to "command" the US dollar.
But there is no doubt that for cryptocurrencies themselves, the current driving force is no longer blockchain technology or decentralization ideology, after all, Vitalik himself admits to having ultimate control over the Ethereum Foundation, the real ruler of the crypto world is now the real political force, the largest CEXs have to take sides, the issuers and operators of USDT have to take sides, and even every crypto trader has to make their own choice.
The wartime state has become a reality in 2025.
Two Worlds
Looking at the main melody of 2025, the fragmentation of world trade has become a reality, regionalization has actually replaced the old globalization centered on the US and based on the WTO mechanism, the only thing left is that the US dollar is still the global currency.
In fact, Trump has repeatedly warned the BRICS countries not to challenge the status of the US dollar, but everyone knows that if the US does not participate in global trade, it is very strange to use the currencies of non-trading countries, but everyone also knows that there is no country or organization whose currency can challenge the status of the US dollar.
The dilemma is unprecedented.
Blockchain technology has made some attempts, such as the mBridge project led by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which focuses on the settlement between CBDCs, with the participation of the central banks of China, the UAE and other countries and regions;
But the BIS is also unable to bridge the divided world, and has withdrawn from the mBridge project, the reason being that too many BRICS countries are involved, and the BIS fears being accused by the West of helping Russia and others evade sanctions, so the BIS can only launch the Agora project, with participants being South Korea, Japan, the EU and other countries, clearly divided between East and West.
Web3 projects have also continued to advance, the PayFi concept has entered the long-term construction stage, Huma Finance hopes to connect the cross-border settlement of enterprises in the post-Ripple era, the means of course, and can only be stablecoins, but the power of a single project is limited, B2B has become the mainstream choice, and has nothing to do with ordinary people.
Web3 super individuals are at a loss, in the era of CEX explosion, holding BTC, ETH, and even BNB can outperform, but in the PVP era, super individuals have to face the super-fast reactions of robots, the cannibalistic attacks of coin issuance groups, and the unscrupulous PUA of VCs, the old world has ultimately disappeared.
Last year, Web3 settlement based on stablecoins may have been the biggest trend in the industry, but it is difficult to say now, after the AI Agents went out, the entire industry has entered a boring and protracted soap opera mode, starting a mode of family quarrels and complaints, VCs say they have a 6-fold return and are suffering, CEXs say they have achieved a platform coin market cap of 100 billion and a trading volume of 100 trillion and are suffering.
Epilogue
There is no true empathy in this world, humans cannot empathize with their own kind, but before the epic market crash of the US stock market, I hope we still have our own chance.
From any angle, this DeepSeek surprise attack is just a rehearsal for the next long and agonizing battle, I hope we can all be prepared before that.
