Original | Odaily
Author | jk
On February 3, with the lingering Chinese New Year atmosphere, the crypto market crash has caused significant shrinkage in many investors' wallets. Within just a few hours, BTC plunged from over $97,000 to a low of $91,000, before stabilizing above $93,000, a 24-hour drop of 6%; ETH fared even worse, plummeting from the original $3,000, breaking through the support level and dropping to as low as $2,100, before rebounding to $2,500, a 24-hour drop of around 20%. Additionally, XRP dropped 20% in 24 hours, Solana 7.6%, BNB 13.5%, and Dogecoin 18.2% within 24 hours. The crypto market bulls are in despair, with $1.8 billion in liquidations in 24 hours.
The biggest loser is the 1inch team, who spent $10 million USDC this morning to buy 3,257 ETH at an average price of $3,070. Just two hours later, ETH plummeted 20%, resulting in a $2 million loss, leaving them wondering how to feel.
If you need further understanding of the short-term market situation, you can read 《ETH 24H plunges 30%, has the crypto bull market ended?》.
Bitcoin trend, source: Coingecko
Meanwhile, we are also concerned about what will happen in the next week, month, and three months? Will the market plummet to $70,000 as predicted by Arthur Hayes? Or will it recover in the short term and return above $100,000 like in December and January? And another core issue that many are concerned about: can Ethereum still be bought?
Let's take a look at the institutional views and medium-term forecasts.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin may drop to $70,000, reach $250,000 by year-end
The famous crypto KOL and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote on X on January 27, just a week ago: "I predict BTC will undergo a $70,000 to $75,000 correction, however a mini financial crisis, and the resumption of money printing, will see Bitcoin reach $250,000 by year-end."
In his subsequent lengthy post, Hayes mentioned an important point:
"History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. I don't believe this bull cycle is over; however, from a forward-looking probability standpoint, I think Bitcoin is more likely to drop to $70,000 to $75,000, and then rally to $250,000 by year-end, rather than continuing higher without a meaningful pullback.
I believe we will retrace to the previous all-time high (referring to March 2024, when BTC price was between $60,000-$70,000), and give back all the gains brought about by Trump.
There is a 60% chance of a 30% BTC correction, and a 40% chance of the bull market continuing and BTC rising 10%, so reducing risk is the right call...if BTC crashes, the shit coin realm will face the apocalypse, and that is where I truly want to participate."
Subsequently, he said he would increase his position in Ethena USDe. And according to his theory, if this round of investors is hurt, they should keep calm and continue to hold, waiting for Trump to fulfill his promises and good news, waiting for BTC to reach $250,000.
Arthur Hayes' tweet, source: X
Previously, Arthur Hayes successfully predicted that the market would see a major correction before Trump's inauguration, as the market would eventually realize that Trump's promises could not be quickly fulfilled, or could not be fulfilled before the next midterm elections, corresponding to the large market movements around December 17 and January 9 from above $100,000.
CryptoQuant: The bull market will not end until ETF and institutional buying slows down
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on January 31 that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has not yet ended. This seems to be a response to the "the bull market will peak in March" sentiment in the market.
He believes that the engine of Bitcoin purchases is still running: "In 2021, the market downturn occurred two months after the GBTC capital inflow dried up. Before the slowdown in ETF, MicroStrategy and institutional buying, there is no need to rush to judge the cycle peak."
According to current trends, the inflow of capital into ETFs has not slowed down. The data shows that the volatility of inflows in the past three months is significantly higher than the three months before, and the net inflow is significantly greater than the net outflow, not showing a drying up trend.
Net inflow of spot BTC ETFs in the past three months, source: The Block
Bitwise CIO: The market decline is short-term, the long-term outlook is still bullish
A week ago, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan commented on the crypto market crash. He posted on X saying: "When the market declines and cryptocurrencies also face sell-offs, people always panic about the correlation. But history shows: short-term declines, long-term gains.
My colleague Juan Leon (Bitwise Senior Investment Analyst) has done research on this. Over the past decade, if you look at all the days when SPX fell 2% or more, BTC fell an average of 2.62%. In comparison, gold rose an average of 0.11%, indicating it is a better single-day hedge tool. But if you look at a year from those days, BTC rose an average of 189%, while gold rose an average of 7%.
QCP Capital: No significant BTC upside until Trump confirms "Bitcoin strategic reserve"
BTC is not expected to see a significant upside before the confirmation of establishing a strategic BTC reserve. The Trump administration's assessment of a "national digital asset reserve" is not enough to sustain the recent market optimism. At least from March onwards, the risk reversal still leans towards call options, indicating the market will not have high expectations until the end of the season.
Matrixport: The current sell-off is caused by lack of liquidity and herd trading, the market is expected to recover soon
Matrixport co-founder Daniel Yan said the current Asian market is overly sensitive to negative news and lacks independent thinking. The current sell-off is a typical weak market caused by lack of liquidity and commodity trading advisor (CTA) herd trading. The new tariff policy has limited impact on US productivity and inflation, the market is expected to recover soon.
Of course, there is the classic bullish big brother: 3 hours ago, Michael Saylor posted on X saying: "Never sell your Bitcoin." Perhaps we will soon hear the news of Microstrategy adding to their position.
