The probability of falling to $75,000 has increased sharply! Options data suggests Bitcoin may continue to pull back

According to the CoinDesk report, data from the on-chain options market Derive.xyz shows that the probability of Bitcoin (BTC) price dropping to $75,000 by March 28 has risen to 22%, up significantly from 10% the previous week. This change is related to the renewed trade war between the US and its major trading partners (Canada, Mexico and China), with the market concerned that this will drive up global inflation, making it harder for central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), to cut interest rates, thereby affecting the investment sentiment in the crypto market. The trade war and inflation concerns are undermining market confidence. Derive stated in an email that Trump's recent 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, could lead to higher inflation, which would impact the investment sentiment in the crypto market. Bitwise's European head Andre Dragosch also pointed out on X (formerly Twitter) that these tariffs are impacting the market through a stronger dollar and tighter global money supply. Bitcoin has fallen 11% to $93,700 in four days, while the second-largest cryptocurrency Ethereum (ETH) briefly fell below $2,200, a new low since August 5 last year. Technically, Bitcoin is forming a 'Double Top' reversal pattern, which could further open up the downside to $75,000. Former BitMEX CEO and Maelstrom Investment CIO Arthur Hayes also recently stated that BTC could first drop to $75,000 before launching a larger bull market. Although Bitcoin faces near-term pressure, Derive believes the long-term development prospects of the market remain optimistic. They see applications for spot ETFs of assets like DOGE, SOL, XRP and LTC, which, if approved by the SEC, would further legitimize the digital asset industry and attract more capital inflows to drive up prices. Additionally, several US states are actively establishing Bitcoin strategic reserves, providing further support for the market. On the other hand, Andre Dragosch expects that as the global market continues to deteriorate, the Fed will ultimately have to intervene to prevent further asset price declines, likely by restarting quantitative easing (QE) to curb the continued appreciation of the US dollar and prevent further tightening of the global financial environment, which would slow economic growth.