Bitcoin drops to 75K? Arthur Hayes talks about the FED's policy disagreement with Trump, which has shaken the market, and DeepSeek's impact on the US's AI dominance

In an interview on 2/2, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes stated that with the technological breakthrough of Chinese AI company DeepSeek, the return of US President Donald Trump, and tightening global liquidity, the tech market and cryptocurrency market are facing new challenges. He also pointed out that the Trump administration is preparing to print more money and reduce regulation, reshaping the US economy and financial market, and Bitcoin (BTC) may retrace to $75K before starting a new uptrend.

DeepSeek AI Technological Breakthrough, China's AI Industry Faces New Competition

Recently, the Chinese AI company DeepSeek has trained an AI model that can rival the ones developed by OpenAI and Google at a cost of only $6 million, shocking the global market and causing NVIDIA's stock price to plummet 17% in a single day, making people question whether the US's position as an AI superpower has been shaken.

Hayes pointed out that DeepSeek is not supported by the Chinese government or large enterprises, but rather a hedge fund team from Hong Kong, which is different from China's traditional support for the AI sector, making US investors start to re-evaluate the global competitive landscape of the AI industry. He said that if the cost of developing AI models is significantly reduced, future industry competition will become more intense, which may affect NVIDIA's long-term revenue, and also create new investment opportunities in the AI industry.

FED and Trump Policies at Odds, BTC May Retrace to $75K

After Trump's return, the market generally believes that he will push for a shift in US economic policy towards printing money and investing in infrastructure, bringing overseas companies back to the US, and relaxing regulation to accelerate the development of technology and cryptocurrencies. However, the Federal Reserve (FED) may be at odds with the Trump administration's policies, as the FED is currently focused on curbing inflation, while Trump wants to cut interest rates and print money to stimulate the market.

However, Hayes said that in the short term, market liquidity may decline, as the FED and the US Treasury Department need to solve the $6 trillion short-term debt problem, which may lead to a temporary pullback in the stock market and BTC. He predicts that BTC may retrace to $75K in the short term before starting a new uptrend.

BTC May Reach $25K, Market Forecasts and Underlying Momentum

Hayes pointed out that US fiscal policy and global liquidity will determine the direction of BTC prices, and it may break through $250,000 in the next few years. The main reasons are:

• The US and global money printing, with funds flowing into BTC and gold as scarce assets.
• The Trump administration may support the development of BTC, and even consider including BTC in the US Treasury's reserves.
• Global economic restructuring, with major economies like the US, Europe, China, and Japan increasing their money supply.

However, Hayes also warned that the market still needs to observe changes in short-term economic policies, especially the decisions of the FED and the US Treasury Department. If the Trump administration accelerates the devaluation of the US dollar and inflation, BTC will become the best choice to hedge against fiat currency devaluation, and its price may accelerate upwards.

Tech and Cryptocurrency Markets Enter a New Era

Finally, Hayes summarized the following changes that the global market may face in the next few years:

• China's AI competitiveness is improving, posing new challenges to US tech giants.
• The Trump administration may relax regulation to promote the BTC and blockchain markets.
• Market liquidity may decline in the short term, but BTC will benefit from the money printing in the long run.
• Meme coins combined with politics will become a new market trend.

Hayes reminded investors to closely monitor US fiscal policy, global AI competition, and FED decisions, as these factors will determine the future development of BTC, tech stocks, and the AI industry.

(Asian stocks plummet, BTC 91K, ETH 2.1K, $200 million in liquidations across the network)