CME美联储观察：美联储3月降息25个基点的概率为17%

Odaily reports that according to CME Federal Reserve observation data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 17%, and the probability of keeping it unchanged is 83%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 17%

Odaily Odaily News reports that the US Federal Reserve's January FOMC meeting decided to remain unchanged, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, in line with market expectations. Can further rate cuts be expected? A research report by CICC believes that there is no need to conclude that the Fed cannot cut rates in the future. From the perspective of the reflexive effect of interest rates, the less expected a rate cut is, the more helpful it can be for a rate cut, just like last September when the more concerns about a recession, the less likely a recession would actually occur. Therefore, the current view that a rate cut is impossible is the same problem as the view in September that the Fed needs to cut rates significantly in succession. (Jin Shi)

CICC: The Fed needs to suspend interest rate cuts before it can continue to cut interest rates

Odaily reports that the European Central Bank has lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with a 25 basis point rate cut. The main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate have been lowered from 3.15% and 3.40% to 2.90% and 3.15%, respectively. (<金十>)

ECB cuts interest rates by 25 basis points as expected

Odaily Odaily reports that Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price expects overall PCE to rise 0.3% month-over-month in December, with core PCE rising 0.2%, in line with market consensus. Economists generally expect core PCE to continue declining in the coming months, although sticky service prices will continue to exert upward pressure on the index. Russell Price added in his analysis: "Maintaining a pause is a very rational and reasonable view, and the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting." (JinShi)

Economist: Core PCE is expected to cool down this week, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting