Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of Cryptocurrencies is $3.57 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.44%, which is $2.05 trillion. The market capitalization of Stablecoins is $215.6 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 2.95%, of which USDT accounts for 64.82%.

This week, the price of BTC has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $104,726; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $3,338.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have increased while the majority have decreased, including: TRUMP with a 7-day increase of 426.7%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 40.1%, XCN with a 7-day increase of 368.2%, and VTHO with a 7-day increase of 107.2%.

This week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was $1.603 billion, and the net inflow of the US Ethereum Spot ETF was $139.4 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on January 24 was 75 (consistent with the previous week), with the market sentiment being Greedy for 6 days and Extremely Greedy for 1 day this week.

Market Forecast: This week, due to the severe bloodsucking of celebrity tokens like TRUMP, most tokens have shown a downward trend, while Stablecoins have continued to increase, with the increase being greater than the previous two weeks. The US BTC and ETH Spot ETFs have seen large net inflows. Although Trump has not yet issued more executive orders on cryptocurrencies, based on the personnel appointments in the relevant departments, "crypto administration" is imminent. The market is currently still in the middle of a bull market uptrend and can continue to be held. For popular tracks, you can pay attention to DeFi, or you can see its in-depth research report on "Hotcoin Web3 Research".

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On January 19, the topic of "Trump Issuing Cryptocurrency" briefly ranked 2nd on the Douyin (TikTok) Social Ranking, attracting a lot of attention from outside the circle;

2. On January 20, Jito Labs co-founder Buffalu posted that due to an unprecedented load level, Jito Labs' block engine API is experiencing severe service degradation. While the Solana network continues to operate and process blocks, transactions submitted through the Jito Labs service are affected. The engineering team has been working for hours to fix the issue and will provide the latest updates once the full service is restored;

3. On January 21, the Trump family's cryptocurrency project WLFI announced the purchase of various assets to celebrate Trump's inauguration, including $47 million in ETH and wBTC;

4. On January 22, according to Bloomberg, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said that stablecoin regulation is of paramount importance and that an executive order on cryptocurrencies is expected soon. He also said that the selection of Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chairman is an excellent choice;

5. On January 22, according to market news, acting SEC Chairman Mark Uyeda announced the establishment of a new crypto working group. The new cryptocurrency-focused team will work to develop a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets. Senior Advisor Gabbert and Asher are serving as the group's chief of staff and chief policy advisor, respectively;

6. On January 22, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that he had just called the mother of Silk Road founder Ross William Ulbricht and told her that he was "honored to have just signed a full and unconditional pardon" for her son Ross;

7. On January 23, according to market news, XRP and SOL CME futures are expected to be launched on February 10 after regulatory review;

8. On January 22, Cow DAO released "CIP-61: Price Improvement Share, Revenue Share and Fees on the CoW Protocol" on Snapshot. The CIP proposes to implement a specific method and ultimately complete the revenue model experiment. The main goal is to continue using price improvement sharing as the primary revenue model, while retaining the option to introduce new (price improvement sharing/fee) strategies for testing. If successful, the proposal will take effect on February 1, 2025;

9. On January 23, Arbitrum and Azuki launched the anime project Animecoin, which has opened the ANIME airdrop check page and will be available for claiming tonight at 9 PM (UTC+8);

10. On January 24, Cointelegraph posted on social media that Trump said he would call for lower interest rates;

11. On January 24, CZ posted on the X platform commenting on "US Senator Cynthia Lummis as Chair of the US Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee", stating: "US strategic Bitcoin reserve, basically confirmed. Crypto is moving forward at crypto speed".

Macroeconomic

1. On January 21, according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January is 99.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.5%;

2. On January 21, the US SEC issued a statement on the departure of Gary Gensler;

3. On January 22, ECB Governing Council member Nouy said the hurdle for another rate hike next week is low. The data is encouraging, confirming that we will return to the target;

4. On January 23, Japanese listed company Remixpoint announced that it has completed a new round of cryptocurrency investment. The company spent 500 million yen to purchase 31.27 bitcoins on January 21, with an average purchase price of 15.99 million yen. As of now, the company's cryptocurrency investment portfolio has a total market value of 8.789 billion yen, with a bitcoin holding of 447.43 BTC, 1,102.86 ETH, 12,581.38 SOL, 802,100 XRP, and 2,802,300 Dogecoin, with an overall unrealized profit of 1.289 billion yen;

5. On January 23, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 18 was 223,000, expected to be 220,000, and the previous value was 217,000;

6. On January 24, according to the official page, the US SEC has issued SAB 122, officially revoking SAB 121 which prevented banks from custodying cryptocurrencies;

7. On January 24, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, from 0.25% to 0.50%, the largest hike since 2007, with the rate reaching a new high since October 2008. Since restarting rate hikes in March last year, the Bank of Japan has raised rates three times in less than 12 months.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period of January 20 to January 24, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was $1.603 billion; as of January 24, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $21.608 billion, currently holding $21.706 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $60.123 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF is $125.063 billion.

The net inflow of the US Ethereum Spot ETF was $139.4 million.

Foresee the Future

Event Preview

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025 in Hong Kong;

2. ETHDenver 2025 will be held from February 23 to March 2, 2025 in Denver, USA.

Project Progress

1. Crypto derivatives exchange Bitnomial announced plans to launch the Bitnomial Clearinghouse, a CFTC-regulated derivatives clearing organization and stablecoin clearing house, on January 30, 2025;

2. The Fuel L2 network on Ethereum will airdrop 150 million FUEL tokens in the second phase Genesis Drop, with eligibility verification and claiming taking place from January 30 to March 2, 2025; the FS-1 event will also airdrop 150 million FUEL;

3. Soarchain will launch a group competition on January 30, where participants will be divided into different teams based on nationality, with a new metric measured each week and rewards given to the winning teams;

4. OneKey Card will gradually discontinue service, with OneKey Card service stopping on January 31;

5. The Trump-backed NFT series is using the Ordinals protocol to launch "Trump Bitcoin Digital Trading Card" on Bitcoin, with the first batch of 160 cards, where users who obtain 100 NFT cards from the "Mugshot Edition" and submit a Bitcoin wallet are eligible to claim through the NFT marketplace Magic Eden, with the deadline being January 31, 2025.

6. The ME Foundation stated that ME airdrop users need to complete wallet binding and claim by February 1, and all ME tokens need to be claimed through the ME mobile application.

Important Events

1. The Indian cryptocurrency trading platform Mudrex has suspended withdrawals due to compliance updates until January 28;

2. The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is seeking industry feedback by March 31, planning to strengthen customer protection for cryptocurrency accounts, hoping to require service providers to compensate consumers who lose funds due to hacking or unauthorized transactions, and suggesting that digital wallets be subject to the same standards as bank accounts;

3. The revised UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 will take effect on January 31, 2025, clarifying that the staking of cryptocurrencies (an important component of proof-of-stake blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana) does not fall within the definition of a "collective investment scheme";

4. The Korean Personnel Management Department has required all government agencies to re-evaluate the implementation of restrictions on public officials' holding of cryptocurrencies. Agencies must review their compliance and submit a report by January 31.

Token Unlocks

1. Axelar (AXL) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on January 27, worth approximately $9.02 million, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating supply;

2. Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 19.07 million tokens on January 28, worth approximately $9.39 million, accounting for 1.91% of the circulating supply;

3. Conflux (CFX) will unlock 87.5 million tokens on February 2, worth approximately $13.14 million, accounting for 1.72% of the circulating supply.