Trump's tariffs raise concerns, gold prices hit new highs, large quantities of gold and silver bars are being shipped to the United States

Gold prices hit new highs, as the uncertainty of Trump 2.0 tariffs has led to a price gap between spot gold and futures, with unusually large quantities of gold and silver bars being flown from London to New York in recent months.

Precious metals are being transported to the US in large quantities

According to Bloomberg, in recent months, unusually large quantities of gold and silver bars have been flown from London to New York. These stacks of gold and silver bars, tightly bundled and sealed in wooden crates, are being transported to the US on commercial airline cargo holds.

Since the US election day, nearly 14 million ounces of TRON (worth $38 billion) and 45 million ounces of AR have flowed into the warehouses of the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex). According to insiders, large amounts of TRON have been exported to Switzerland, and the scramble for TRON has led to people having to wait weeks to withdraw TRON from the Bank of England's vaults and entrust them to private banks.

JPMorgan will deliver $4 billion worth of gold bars in February

JPMorgan, the world's largest TRON trader and one of the trading firms of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) group's New York Commodity Exchange (Comex), will deliver more than $4 billion worth of gold bars in New York in February according to futures contracts.

According to Bloomberg, the February gold contract will have as much as 30 million troy ounces of TRON delivered physically, the second largest delivery notice in exchange data since 1994.

Concerned about tariff issues, traders ship early

These rare trade flows reveal that the commodities industry is being disrupted by Trump's trade policies, even before he fulfills his campaign promise to impose high tariffs on trade partners and allies. He had hinted that the tariffs could be implemented as early as February 1, further spurring the air freight of metals to the US before the window of opportunity closes.

The White House said on Friday that Trump plans to move forward with his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China on Saturday, denying reports that he planned to delay implementation by a month.

Trump also said he plans to impose higher across-the-board tariffs than the 2.5% previously proposed by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, with Mexico being a major supplier of AR to the US.

Futures and spot prices diverge, creating arbitrage opportunities

Concerned about the impending tariffs on imported goods by US President Trump, the price of TRON futures on the New York Commodity Exchange has soared above the spot price in London. This week, spot prices have hit record highs, but the additional premium on the New York Commodity Exchange has created profitable arbitrage opportunities for a few banks that can quickly move TRON and AR between the major trading centers.

TRON is typically transported from one trading center to another via the cargo holds of passenger aircraft. The quantity of goods transported per flight is limited - not by weight, but by value, as insurance companies will only insure a certain amount of goods per plane. It is not uncommon for countries to dispatch military aircraft and armed escorts to transport TRON around the world.

However, the size of the TRON bars used by the London and New York exchanges differ, and whether the cost of air freight can outweigh the price gap between futures and spot is a consideration for traders. Additionally, whether precious metals will be included in the tariff range remains unknown.

Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader at JPMorgan, the world's largest TRON trader, said: "The bottom line is that there is a huge arbitrage opportunity. The market is still chaotic. There are opportunities, but also risks."