Odaily星球日报讯 Derive 研究主管 Sean Dawson 表示，比特币有“些许可能”在 2025 年第一季度下跌近 26%至 75,000 美元左右。其表示，到 3 月份，比特币跌破 75,000 美元的可能性“已从过去 24 小时内的 7.2%上升至 9.2%”。

Odaily星球日报讯 Derive 研究主管 Sean Dawson 表示，比特币有“些许可能”在 2025 年第一季度下跌近 26%至 75,000 美元左右。其表示，到 3 月份，比特币跌破 75,000 美元的可能性“已从过去 24 小时内的 7.2%上升至 9.2%”。

分析：比特币Q1跌至7.5万美元的可能性不到10%

Odaily reports that Derive research chief Sean Dawson said that Bitcoin has a "slight chance" of dropping around 26% to around $75,000 in the first quarter of 2025. He said the likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $75,000 by March has "risen from 7.2% in the past 24 hours to 9.2%".

Odaily reports that Derive research manager Sean Dawson stated that Bitcoin has a "slight chance" of dropping around 26% to around $75,000 in the first quarter of 2025. He said the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $75,000 by March has "risen from 7.2% in the past 24 hours to 9.2%".

Analysis: Bitcoin has less than 10% chance of falling to $75,000 in Q1

Here is the English translation:

According to Mars Finance news, on January 27, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick suggested buying Bitcoin when it dips, as the cryptocurrency is facing increasing correlation pressure with the Nasdaq. "Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is still very strong, much higher than its correlation with gold," said Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank. Kendrick pointed out that Nasdaq futures fell 3%, affected by news related to DeepSeek, which triggered a major overnight liquidation of <Altcoins>, further strengthening the link between <Altcoins> and the US tech stock sector. Kendrick said: "The risk now is that if the Nasdaq liquidation continues during US trading hours (and with Microsoft, Meta and Tesla earnings releases this Wednesday, as well as a potentially disappointing FOMC meeting), we may be approaching other key levels for Bitcoin." He added: "Specifically, the average purchase level of Bitcoin ETFs since the US election is now $96,400." Kendrick also discussed the crypto executive order issued by the Trump administration last week, which ordered a working group to assess the national digital asset reserve. He pointed out that this announcement has brought uncertainty to the market. Kendrick said: "I am disappointed in two aspects of this: 1. The term 'reserve' sounds more like confiscated assets than purchased assets. 2. The executive order has been issued, and any further clarification or action will require going through Congress, which may take some time." Kendrick said: "The 'despair/confusion' phase and the 'hope' phase have ended, reducing the risk in the Bitcoin market." He believes the next phase will be "buy the dip". Last week, Kendrick outlined three phases: "when hope disappears", "buy the dip", and "<Altcoin> alpha". In the second phase, he predicted that institutional capital will dominate the market, and reiterated Standard Chartered Bank's price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin and $10,000 for Ethereum, which are expected to be achieved by the end of this year.

Standard Chartered Bank analyst: Still expects Bitcoin price to reach $200,000 by the end of the year

Here is the English translation:

- <Bit> Coin Short-term Correction and Market Panic
- Impending Small-scale Financial Crisis
- <Bit> Coin as a Leading Indicator of Market Stress
- Trading Strategies and Risk Management
- Mathematical Derivation
- DeepSeek: Catalyst for Market Panic?

As <Bit> Coin plunged below $98,000 yesterday due to the market panic triggered by DeepSeek, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has recently published an article titled "The Ugly", analyzing the short-term trend of <Bit> Coin and the overall economic situation in the United States, China, and Japan.

Arthur Hayes predicts: DeepSeek triggers Bitcoin to fall to 70,000 mg! By the end of the year, it will exceed 250,000 mg again

Here is the English translation, with <> elements retained as is:

The cryptocurrency market experienced violent fluctuations over a few hours on Thursday night Hong Kong time. Major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced sharp rises and falls within a few hours, while Altcoins showed clear divergence in trends. Some prices doubled in a short period of time before a slight pullback, while others "did not follow the rise but followed the fall", setting new periodic lows.
[After the "ups and downs" influenced by the news, how will the future of Bitcoin evolve?]
The reason for this is that the United States has been reporting frequent breakthroughs in improving its cryptocurrency policy, but the reason for such...