Overview of Important Events This Week (1/19-1/25)
The lack of mention of Altcoins in US President Trump's inauguration speech disappointed the Altcoin community, but on Thursday he officially signed the first Altcoin-friendly executive order, announcing the establishment of the President's Digital Asset Market Working Group. At the same time, Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, who advocates building a BTC reserve, also announced that she will chair the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, which will evaluate the inclusion of BTC in strategic reserves, bringing new positive signals to the Altcoin field.
The Ethereum ecosystem also had a tough week, as although V God announced a management structure reform of the Ethereum Foundation, he was still unable to appease the community. A core developer announced his departure from the Foundation, and the community even voiced the idea of establishing a "second foundation", leaving the future development of Ethereum filled with more uncertainty.
- BTC: BlackRock CEO says institutions are accelerating allocations, BTC could reach $70,000; China plans to expand the purchase of Hong Kong BTC ETFs by residents of the Greater Bay Area, a positive signal for relaxing the ban.
- Interest Rates: The Bank of Japan has decided to raise rates to 0.5%, but this has not had a major impact on the market; US President Trump has asked the Fed to cut rates immediately.
- US Regulation: The SEC and CFTC have both welcomed new Altcoin-friendly leaders, with "Crypto Mom" leading the Altcoin working group and Caroline Pham serving as acting CFTC chair.
- US BTC Strategic Reserve: CZ affirmed that it will basically be realized, with 5 possible implementation paths.
- Taiwan: The Financial Supervisory Commission will hold a public hearing on the Virtual Asset Act in February; the Trump meme Altcoin is not illegal in Taiwan, but has been reported for violating anti-money laundering laws.
- South Korea: Accelerating the lifting of the ban on corporate investment in virtual assets.
- Ethereum: V God opposes politicians issuing meme Altcoins, and is considering staking instead of selling Altcoins.
- MicroStrategy: Passed a share increase proposal to increase its BTC holdings.
- Telegram: TON will become Telegram's exclusive blockchain.
Changes in Trading Market Data This Week
Sentiment and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
The market sentiment indicator this week ranged from 77 (Greed) to 75 (Greed), staying in the (Greed) and (Extreme Greed) range throughout the week.
2. Sector Performance
Artemis data shows that the average gain of blockchain sectors this week was -12.7%, with the top three performing sectors being Centralized Exchange (1.8%), Oracle (-2.2%), and RWA (-2.5%).
The declines of Bitcoin and Ethereum this week were -1.0% and -5.4% respectively. The worst performing sector was Bitcoin Ecosystem at -21.5%, underperforming the market. The next worst performers were DePIN (-21.2%) and Bridge (-20.5%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total Crypto Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply
This week's data shows the total crypto market cap ranging from $3.53 trillion to $3.62 trillion. BTC dominance is 53.96%, and ETH dominance is 10.30%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $193.5 billion to $197.77 billion this week.
2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges
Data shows that exchange assets have seen net inflows this week, indicating that investors may be preparing for upcoming market volatility. Inflows to exchanges are often seen as a sign that demand for purchases may increase in the short term.
However, compared to the peak single-day net inflow of $15.8 billion in December, the highest single-day net inflow this week was only $2.19 billion, significantly lower than the previous level. The lowest single-day net inflow occurred on January 19 (Sunday) at $1.64 billion, but the situation has improved slightly compared to the previous week.
3. Crypto Dynamics
In the crypto market this week, VeThor, Raydium, and Spell led with gains of +112%, +41.7%, and +31% respectively.
Blockchaincenter data shows that the current Altcoin Season Index is 51 (down -4 from last week).
The current bull market top signals are 0/30, with no top warning signals triggered yet.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows
This week, Bitcoin ETF flows saw an inflow of $2.061 billion.
2. Bitcoin Open Interest Exceeds $66.89 Billion
According to data, the total open interest across the network has exceeded $66.89 billion during the recent Bitcoin price increase, almost returning to the level seen in November last year.
4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($103,000) is in the "Consider DCA" range.
5. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained mostly in negative territory, indicating relatively weak demand in the US market, but has improved slightly compared to last week.
Note: A positive premium usually indicates stronger buying power from US investors compared to the global market, but based on historical data, a premium below -0.2% is often a buying opportunity.
6. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss
The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows signs of a recovery in Bitcoin market performance. As prices have risen, the market's realized profits have gradually turned upward from previous declines, suggesting improved investor sentiment and potential for renewed market participation in the short term.
7. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
On-chain data shows that the net position change of Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTH) indicates that selling pressure continues to exist, but the magnitude has decreased compared to the concentrated selling at the end of last year. As Bitcoin prices have continued to rise, some long-term holders appear to have continued to realize profits through sales.
If the selling pressure further weakens in the coming weeks, long-term holders may start to accumulate positions again, which could provide positive sentiment support for the market and create favorable conditions for price appreciation.
8. Bitcoin On-Chain Buying Power
According to on-chain data, the supply held by short-term Bitcoin holders has continued to increase this week, indicating increased market trading activity and more capital flowing into short-term positions. Meanwhile, the supply held by long-term holders has gradually decreased, reflecting some capital choosing to realize profits.
This Week's Market Analysis News
1. Bitcoin breaks $109,000 to a new high, search volume for buying crypto surges - "FOMO bull market" is here?
Trump launched an official meme coin $TRUMP on Solana, igniting a "buy crypto" frenzy, with Google Trends data showing search volume for "buy crypto" and related keywords spiking to a peak of 100, indicating a surge of new users entering the crypto market. (Continue reading)
2. Trump signs crypto-friendly executive order: Evaluates Bitcoin strategic reserve, bans CBDC issuance, establishes new regulatory framework...
US President Trump officially signed an executive order on Thursday, aimed at ensuring America's global leadership in the digital asset economy. The order includes four key points: Establishing a Presidential Digital Assets Working Group to explore the possibility of a national digital asset reserve; Reviewing existing digital asset regulations; Banning CBDC issuance, etc. (Continue reading)
3. CZ: Highly confident the US will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve! Because Cynthia Lummis is appointed chair of the Senate Digital Assets Subcommittee
Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, who proposed at last year's Bitcoin 2024 conference to have the US establish a Bitcoin reserve and buy 1 million BTC within 5 years, announced yesterday (23rd) that she will be appointed chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets. (Continue reading)
4. BlackRock CEO: Bitcoin is a hedge against global pessimism, institutional adoption could drive it to $700,000
Larry Fink, CEO of the world's largest asset manager BlackRock, said on the 22nd that Bitcoin is a hedge against currency devaluation and instability, and if institutional adoption continues to grow, Bitcoin could surge to $700,000. (Continue reading)
5. US fund companies apply to SEC for TRUMP, DOGE, BONK... meme coin ETFs, Bloomberg analyst: Too surreal
The official Trump meme coin has set another unprecedented record, with US fund companies Osprey Funds and Rex Shares filing with the SEC for ETFs that include TRUMP, DOGE and BONK... meme coins. (Continue reading)
Crypto Regulatory Status Across Countries
1. DePIN's first case》SEC "sues Helium for fraud" for issuing unregistered crypto securities MOBILE, HNT, IOT plummet
2. South Korea accelerates deregulation of corporate investment in virtual assets, stablecoin legislation, can Taiwan keep up?
In 2016, the Bitfinex exchange was hacked and 120,000 bitcoins were stolen, a historic event. Now, the US government has announced that it will return these seized bitcoins to Bitfinex, a move that has sparked heated discussion in the crypto community, with mixed views. (Continue reading)
3. FSC: Taiwan's virtual asset law to be submitted to the Executive Yuan for review by June, stablecoins to be regulated, Bitcoin ETF open to retail investors to be observed for another 6 months
The FSC reported on various major financial measures and answered many reporters' questions at its Chinese New Year press conference today, including "Virtual Asset Act" and "Stablecoin Regulation". It is understood that the Virtual Asset Act is expected to be submitted to the Executive Yuan for review by the end of June, and stablecoins will be jointly supervised by the Central Bank and the FSC. (Continue reading)
Next Week's Market Focus (FOMC and ECB Rate Decisions)
1/27 (Monday)
- China: January Manufacturing PMI, previous value 50.1
1/28 (Tuesday)
- Taiwan/China/South Korea/Vietnam/Indonesia: Lunar New Year holiday
- US: January Consumer Confidence, previous value 104.7
1/29 (Wednesday)
- Eurozone: ECB Press Conference
- Canada: Interest Rate Decision, previous value 3.25%
1/30 (Thursday)
- US: FOMC Interest Rate Decision, previous value 4.50%
- US: Q4 GDP (QoQ), previous value 3.1%
- Germany: Q4 GDP (QoQ), previous value 0.1%
1/31 (Friday)
- Germany: January CPI (MoM), previous value 0.5%
- US: December Core PCE Price Index (MoM), previous value 0.1%
- US: December Core PCE Price Index (YoY), previous value 2.8%
Hong Kong List "Top 30 Most Influential People of the Year" Community Nomination & Voting Begins
- Nomination period: Now - 1/27 nomination deadline
- Voting period: 1/27 - 2/10 voting deadline
- Voting link: Official website
