Author: Happy Translator: TechFlow
The price of Bitcoin has already exceeded $100,000; we have a president who supports cryptocurrencies, but strangely, everyone seems to be very angry.
The Overton Window has undergone a complete change. This time, things are indeed different, but not in the way we expected.
Trump's presidency has brought a puzzling dilemma - what does this mean for my digital assets? Countless thoughts have flooded my mind.
On the one hand, he is the most powerful person in the world, yet he is openly "posting propaganda" for our cryptocurrencies.
But on the other hand, he has used his power and influence to launch Meme coins that dilute market value, to benefit his family, and to try to extract as much capital as possible in this field.
Reality is often stranger than fiction.
Looking back on the history of Bitcoin, the supporters initially designed a game theory plan, predicting how Bitcoin would gradually take over the world. They believed that governments would first oppose us, but we would ultimately prevail. On the surface, this seems to have come true.
Bitcoin has indeed won. It has transformed from being seen as "the money of evil people, used to fund illegal activities" to "the money of freedom", and is now accepted and promoted by the most powerful institutions, individuals, and even countries in the world.
Celebrities like Larry Fink, Donald Trump, Stanley Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio, and Elon Musk have all expressed positive views on Bitcoin at some point. This is in stark contrast to the situation ten years ago, when the only use of Bitcoin might have been to buy a pizza or have environmental protesters glue themselves to your driveway, accusing you of "destroying the Earth".
However, for those who spend 16 hours a day staring at computer screens, chatting with online friends, and frantically speculating on virtual currencies: I think the future may become even more bizarre and more difficult.
In the history of cryptocurrency development, we have always been imagining the changes that these technologies might bring to the "future". "The whole world will be on-chain", "everyone will use stablecoins for transactions", "Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) will replace physical art", "Decentralized Finance (DeFi) will replace the traditional banking system".
But historically, these visions have never truly materialized. The technology is not yet mature, and the government is hostile to this field. They would rather we did not exist, and will use every means to suppress us.
Therefore, many teams have had to focus their efforts on designing products that can both avoid legal risks and maximize token prices. User experience-centric design has long been relegated to the bottom of the priority list.
To some extent, this situation is actually very beneficial for us, the internet geeks. In order to drive up token prices and avoid legal risks, many project teams have adopted a major strategy of directly airdropping tens of thousands of dollars in "free funds" to us.
According to CoinGecko's statistics, the total amount of the top 50 Airdrops has reached $26 billion.
Due to the environment at the time, it was almost impossible to foster truly high-quality products, so we pretended that these projects had already achieved their goals and valued them accordingly.
As a result, we have witnessed many strange phenomena: Layer 1s with no users, yet their valuations are higher than most traditional tech companies; "Ponzi stablecoins" that rely on new capital inflows to maintain their value, with valuations even exceeding the GDP of some countries; the trading prices of ape pictures are even higher than some real estate.
What I want to express is that the entire cryptocurrency industry is built on a seriously flawed incentive system.
In this system, merely talking about building something is as easy to get rich as actually building it. Although many of us have criticized this phenomenon, we have also directly benefited from it.
However, I believe this situation may be about to change.
With the emergence of government and regulatory policies that support cryptocurrencies, we finally have the opportunity to design serious, practical-use products for those who truly need them.
This is great news for the entire industry, but I have no idea what it means for us "speculators".
In a world where legal clarity drives real innovation, will innovators continue to give us "free funds" through Airdrops?
As the legal environment becomes clearer, will more professionals enter the on-chain ecosystem, thereby weakening the current "speculator mentality"?
If cryptocurrency projects achieve technological breakthroughs and attract "real users", what will happen to those applications that still have no users?
If the government shifts from hostility to support, will we blindly turn to using more centralized blockchains?
When the barrier to creating Tokens is reduced to zero, will all Tokens be diluted and lose their value?
As higher-quality applications continue to emerge, will we see a large influx of actual users into the on-chain economy, and will the funds stay on-chain long-term or be withdrawn back to the traditional economy?
Ultimately, will we end up in a situation similar to Web 2.0 - where a few companies take all the money, while other projects become insignificant in comparison?
Does your family's future really depend on whether you bought those seven coins? If you missed them, will you be doomed to poverty just for holding Ethereum for too long?
Will Michael Saylor impulsively sell all his Bitcoin (BTC)? This sounds absurd, but if it happens, we may end up with nothing.
Will the Ethereum Foundation suddenly disband, and we can only watch helplessly as Vitalik creates a new blockchain with his "Milady spirit"?
If Trump decides to launch an "American chain" and airdrop Tokens to every citizen, while heavily taxing other chains and Tokens, what will happen? Will this cause the prices to rise, or will it lead to a market collapse?
Honestly, I have no answers. This may be the most confusing time for me in the past five years.
The only thing I'm sure of is that everything will change, and the cryptocurrency world four years from now will be vastly different from the present.
So, how should I respond to these changes?
Frankly, I'm not smart, I just happened to make some money in the past few years. Therefore, I've decided to reduce my investment risk and withdraw some of my funds from the cryptocurrency market.
I can no longer bear to have 95% of my net worth invested in those "virtual currencies" that crash 95% every few years.
I don't dare tell my girlfriend that I've bet our future on Trump fulfilling his campaign promises. And before that, I had already bet everything on him winning the election.
However, I think I might perform better in the future. After all, now I know that even if I mess up, I won't end up on the streets, because I've transferred some of my assets to "physical assets".
At the same time, I'm also quite afraid of the advanced scams and phishing that may appear this year. We now have AI that can write content better than most humans, and I believe it's only a matter of time before these robots are specifically designed to trick you out of your private keys.
To address the potential risks of the future, I'm also considering hedging. Using a diversified strategy of multiple devices, wallets, and chains seems more important than ever, and I'm also using hardware wallets.
I will continue to hold all my Bitcoin (BTC). This is the only asset in the cryptocurrency field that I truly trust, and I believe Bitcoin still has tremendous growth potential in the next ten years.
As for my plan, it's just to take it as it comes and go with the flow. The future will be full of unknowns and surprises, and innovation will continue to emerge. The cryptocurrency field will see tremendous development, and it will also bring countless opportunities.
I hope to maintain flexibility. I want to hold some stablecoins so I can participate in all the exciting new projects - whether they are experimental, seemingly absurd, or based on meme culture.
I don't want to be too serious about all this, I want to enjoy the fun and then make some money and be happy.
This is my plan: profit at the right time, ensure my life is stable, continue to HODL my Bitcoins, and then watch and try to profit from the next opportunities.
The future may be full of unknowns and be very unusual, but in any case, make sure you at least enjoy it.
Finally, a reminder: don't take this article as financial advice, I'm just an ordinary person, and I may even be stupid. If you sell your coins, they may go up to a trillion dollars; if you keep holding them, they may also go to zero. So, close this page and don't look anymore. Don't pay attention to me, I'm just talking casually.
