Author: TPan Source: Web3 with TPan Translator: Shan Eoba, Jinse Finance
Friday, January 17, 2025, 7:30 PM. My wife and I arrived early at Adam Ray's Dr. Phil show, which is scheduled to start at 8 PM.
I'm proud of myself because I put my phone on silent at 6 PM for dinner and haven't checked messages since then. After arriving at the venue, I finally have time to catch up on notifications and updates on X (formerly Twitter).
On X, everyone is discussing one topic:
Did Trump really launch a Memetoken? Is this a scam?!
Everyone is running around like headless chickens in the digital world, while I'm preparing to enjoy the upcoming comedy show.
Seeing technical detectives like @cygaar share their investigation results, I think it's worth a try. So I bought some TRUMP. But with the show about to start, I can only restrain my curiosity and not check my phone.
Apart from the positive crypto news in the past few days, the only similar cases I can recall are:
• Bored Ape Yacht Club's "Fuck It. Mutants Saturday" post;
• Yuga Labs' announcement about Otherside (also on a Friday night);
• The "check your wallet" message when Azuki announced the Beanz airdrop.
To be honest, these cases pale in comparison to today's event. This is the President of the United States we're talking about!
Memecoins
Before continuing, I want to mention that I occasionally write articles about Memecoins, and the frequency has been increasing as the trend continues to grow.
Whether we like it or not, Memecoins have become an undeniable phenomenon. They are attention-grabbing proxies that can reach absurd and volatile valuations, even making empty wallets rich overnight - or making the rich poor overnight.
With Memetoken issuance platforms like pump.fun, creating a Memecoin now only takes a few minutes. Since these platforms were launched less than a year ago, the growth of Memecoins has been explosive.
The First-Order Impact of TRUMP
Although Memecoins have already attracted a large number of new users, the phenomenon brought by TRUMP is on a completely different level:
• By Saturday night, over 400,000 new users have joined Moonshot, a popular mobile app specifically for buying Memecoins and the co-issuing platform for this token. Moonshot may be the biggest winner, aside from Trump himself.
• Moonshot's daily active users (DAU) have surpassed 1 million.
• Moonshot is ranked 5th on the iOS top downloads chart, with download volumes rivaling the surge in VPN apps due to the TikTok ban.
• Crypto.com has updated its app title to include "TRUMP" and updated its screenshots to highlight the TRUMP and MELANIA tokens (yes, there's also a Memecoin related to Melania, but we won't go into that here, haha) to improve App Store Optimization (ASO).
• Chainalysis has released a report on the holders of the TRUMP and MELANIA tokens, with some interesting statistics:
• About 50% of TRUMP/MELANIA token holders had never previously purchased any Altcoins on the Solana blockchain (excluding $SOL and Solana blockchain stablecoins).
• Nearly half of the buyers created their wallets on the day of purchase.
• The vast majority of TRUMP/MELANIA wallets are worth less than $100, indicating a high proportion of retail activity.
Undoubtedly, TRUMP has attracted the millions of new users we've been calling for, even if in a way that many may not like.
Regardless of our views on Trump or Memecoins, I hope everyone can see this moment with a "half-full glass" mindset. As I mentioned in my "Memecoin Supercycle (User Acquisition) Cycle" article:
NBA Top Shot attracted a large number of new users in February 2021, with over 80,000 unique buyers that month alone. Many of these users eventually moved on to NFTs, with some becoming entrepreneurs, creators, or contributors within the ecosystem. I, like many others I've met over the past few years, was initially attracted by speculation and the potential for big gains.
Whether we love it or hate it, Memecoins are introducing a new user base and demographic to our world, which may validate the Memecoin Supercycle hypothesis.
• Some are using a crypto wallet for the first time (fortunately, the user onboarding experience is much better than in the past).
• Some are starting to learn about slippage and token swapping concepts.
• Some may lose all their money and confirm that crypto is indeed a "scam".
• And some will stick around, becoming curious about what else is happening in this peculiar world.
This is the beginning of the Memecoin Supercycle (User Acquisition) Cycle.
The Second-Order Impact of TRUMP
The second-order effects of Trump launching TRUMP are both concerning and fascinating.
The Concerning Aspects
Now that a head of state has officially launched a Memecoin, it's like opening Pandora's box in the world of Memecoins. Or in "Memecoin trenches" terms, it's "crime szn".
The events of the past few days include:
1. The official account of the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs posted 4 Memecoins and then rugged.
2. The account of Brazilian politician Marco Feliciano was hacked and a scam Memecoin was announced.
3. The account of the Catholic News Agency was hacked and a scam Memecoin was posted.
4. The prayer pastor from Trump's inauguration received a Memecoin and publicly endorsed it, with the proceeds going to his church.
5. There were rumors that MrBeast would launch a Memecoin, which he had to publicly deny.
The token economics model of the TRUMP Memecoin has also raised concerns (details shared on the website):
20% of the circulating supply will be released in the first 3 months, and the remaining 80% supply will be released monthly over the next 21 months.
No one knows how the price of TRUMP will evolve, but in April, "Creators & CIC Digital" may start dumping the tokens onto the open market, selling to unsuspecting buyers and holders.
Based on these trends, we are likely to see more hacker attacks, fake "official" issuances, and scams flooding the market. Everyone must remain vigilant!
Interesting Subsequent Developments
On the other hand, the launch of TRUMP has also triggered some interesting dynamics:
1. Several asset management companies have applied to launch Altcoin ETFs (it is currently unclear whether they will be approved).
2. Trump was asked about his Altcoin and responded to it.
3. Mark Cuban criticized the predatory token economic model of TRUMP and proposed a similar model, suggesting that the token proceeds be used to pay off the U.S. national debt.
4. The founder of Vine launched VINE Altcoin, which is a social video application that was the predecessor of TikTok and was acquired by Twitter in 2013 and closed in 2016. He echoed Elon Musk's interest in reviving the app and hinted that a surprise would be released on Vine's birthday.
The last two points are particularly noteworthy, as we see some creators starting to think about the potential uses of Altcoins beyond just attracting attention.
From the traditional model -
"Attract attention → Increase price → Sell for profit"
to a new path:
• Mark Cuban: Attract attention → Increase price → Use the proceeds to reduce the U.S. national debt.
• VINE: Attract attention → Increase price → ???
Purposeful Utilization of Attention
If the "legal gloves" of Altcoins are removed, what new uses might individuals or entities be able to come up with by using them more creatively?
A simple answer is: We can reuse the Non-Fungible Token model, including promises of access rights (e.g., token-gated), decision rights, and reward mechanisms.
Balaji shared a hypothetical scenario about TRUMP over the weekend, combining its massive market capitalization and Trump's massive audience base (excerpted as follows):
11) One way to solve the incentive problem is for Trump to airdrop some TRUMP tokens to every U.S. citizen. However, he could perhaps more simply email each Trump supporter individually and offer them free TRUMP.
12) Specifically, he could give 72 hours' notice, so that even Democrats would register for his personal email list to get the airdrop.
13) Is this legal? Obviously, it's legal for politicians to email their constituents asking for donations. But as far as I know, no politician has tried a personal airdrop of "free money" on such a large scale.
14) At current valuations, Trump could airdrop $100 worth of locked TRUMP to 77 million Trump voters for a total cost of $7.7 billion, when those assets were worth zero just two days ago. He could even airdrop $500 per person and still have over $20 billion in remaining assets.
15) Yes, this would cost Trump some assets. But if you have to join his email list to claim the tokens, and if the airdrop can be done without capital gains tax, it will "recoup the cost" by making his supporter base even more fanatical.
16) This could even win him the necessary political support, completely undermining the Democratic interest network. Basically, by joining Trump's email list and supporting his crypto policies, you can get a kind of "universal basic income" (UBI) benefit.
17) If 77 million Americans also benefit from TRUMP, the conflict of interest accusations disappear. This would be a new social contract, a personal relationship between the president and the citizens.
This hypothetical scenario clearly changes the nature of the incentive mechanism, especially when the audience scale reaches millions or even tens of millions. This model could open up entirely new paths for the use of Altcoins.
Currently, the potential of Altcoins in this new environment is not yet clear, but emerging ideas and themes will soon surface.
Has the Mania Phase Already Begun?
If you ask me, I would say that Friday night seems to signal the beginning of the mania phase. But as with the development of these things, no one can predict how long the music will play, especially given the many positive regulatory changes that have occurred this week.
So, perhaps we are still some distance from true mania.
Here are some signs that the "Silly Season" (the phase of high speculation and irrationality in the market) has already arrived, all triggered by the launch of the TRUMP Altcoin:
1. On Tuesday, 8 out of the top 10 downloaded finance apps were crypto-related.
2. The "extreme speculators" (Degens) in the crypto space are starting to bring their parents to the Moonshot app (which is pretty cool in itself!).
3. In a Discord server, I captured this interesting conversation:
• Someone asked, "How long do you think this mania can last?"
• Another person replied, "As long as it takes me to buy that Lamborghini."
In any case, I will enjoy the new energy that this field is radiating.
