Odaily星球日报讯 标普全球市场情报经济学家 Harumi Taguchi 表示，美国总统特朗普的经济政策可能仍将是日本央行加息路径的主要风险。他说：“贸易壁垒的增加可能会限制全球贸易，从而可能导致企业利润下降，并限制国内投资和工资增长。如果对保护主义的担忧引发避险情绪，导致日元升值，日本央行可能会推迟加息。”Taguchi 预计，一旦日本央行确认工资增长和季节性奖金的趋势，日本央行将在 9 月将利率上调至 0.75%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 标普全球市场情报经济学家 Harumi Taguchi 表示，美国总统特朗普的经济政策可能仍将是日本央行加息路径的主要风险。他说：“贸易壁垒的增加可能会限制全球贸易，从而可能导致企业利润下降，并限制国内投资和工资增长。如果对保护主义的担忧引发避险情绪，导致日元升值，日本央行可能会推迟加息。”Taguchi 预计，一旦日本央行确认工资增长和季节性奖金的趋势，日本央行将在 9 月将利率上调至 0.75%。（金十）

经济学家：特朗普的经济政策仍是日本央行加息的主要风险

Odaily Odaily report: Standard & Poor's global market intelligence economist Harumi Taguchi said that US President Trump's economic policy may still be the main risk factor for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike path. He said: "The increase in trade barriers may limit global trade, which could lead to a decline in corporate profits and limit domestic investment and wage growth. If concerns about protectionism trigger a risk-averse sentiment, leading to a yen appreciation, the Bank of Japan may delay the interest rate hike." Taguchi expects that once the Bank of Japan confirms the trend of wage growth and seasonal bonuses, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate to 0.75% in September. (Jinshi)

Odaily Odaily report: Standard & Poor's global market intelligence economist Harumi Taguchi said that US President Trump's economic policy may still be the main risk factor for the Bank of Japan's rate hike path. He said: "The increase in trade barriers may limit global trade, which could lead to a decline in corporate profits and limit domestic investment and wage growth. If concerns about protectionism trigger a risk-averse sentiment, leading to a yen appreciation, the Bank of Japan may delay the rate hike." Taguchi expects that once the Bank of Japan confirms the trend of wage growth and seasonal bonuses, the Bank of Japan will raise the interest rate to 0.75% in September. (Jinshi)

Economist: Trump's economic policies remain the main risk to Bank of Japan rate hikes

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy moves have been closely watched by the global financial market recently. The latest news shows that the Bank of Japan plans to decide to further raise the policy interest rate at the monetary policy meeting to be held on the 23rd and 24th, and it is expected to be raised from the current around 0.25% to around 0.5%, reaching the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. At the end of last July, the yen rate hike led to a global financial market plunge, will this trend continue this time?

The market turmoil caused by the previous yen rate hike
Last year, the Bank of Japan had carried out 2 rate hikes, completely bidding farewell to the negative interest rate era.

On March 19, 2024, Japan...

Will the Bank of Japan's largest interest rate hike in 18 years have a shock to the market?

Odaily Odaily reports that Chris Scicluna, head of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Research, said that the Bank of Japan's decision to raise its policy rate to 0.5% indicates the Bank of Japan's determination to guide the economy out of decades of ultra-low interest rates. While the rate hike itself was widely expected, the real significance lies in the signal from the Bank of Japan that Japan may finally be ready to normalize its monetary policy. The current policy rate is the highest since 2008, and the Bank of Japan seems to want to push it to a new high since 1995. "The Bank of Japan has embarked on a journey, and it will be tested on how far it can go without shaking the country's fragile consumption or broader financial stability," said <CHR>.

Institution: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike shows that it is ready for monetary policy normalization

Odaily reports that financial website Forexlive analyst Justin Low: As the week draws to a close, Trump's attitude towards tariffs seems to have softened, putting pressure on the US dollar. The tailwind that the US dollar has enjoyed since December last year has officially turned around, and it seems to have the "Trump" card in the year-end game, but is this really the case? Trump's current attitude towards the US dollar is completely opposite to his first term, as this time he hopes the US dollar will weaken. The only realistic choice is to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates faster, he claims to "understand interest rates better than the Federal Reserve", and hopes for an "immediate" rate cut. However, this does not mean that the Federal Reserve will change its current policy stance, but Trump is likely to give it a push, if he only talks about tariffs but does not take action, this will help alleviate concerns about inflation. As concerns about tariffs ease, the focus will shift to inflation and labor market data to observe the development of the situation. (Jin Shi)