On the evening of January 18th, US time, former President Trump released his own token $TRUMP, causing Solana to surge nearly 50%, breaking through its previous high and approaching the $300 mark, although it has since retreated somewhat, once again igniting on-chain sentiment on the Solana network.
Another "Emotional Stimulant" on the Chain
From the on-chain data perspective, the number of active addresses and transaction data on the Solana network have all seen a V-shaped rebound after the release of $TRUMP, even approaching the highest levels ever. The Solana network has seen a surge of Web3 existing capital as well as some incremental Web2 capital introduced by Moonshot. Moonshot official stated that after being recommended as the preferred purchase method on the TRUMP website, the platform's trading volume reached $400 million in 12 hours, and more than 400,000 new users have joined the Solana ecosystem through its app, reflecting the high on-chain sentiment of the Solana network.
After the launch of the TRUMP coin, the gas fees on the Solana network also experienced dramatic fluctuations. Due to the large amount of transaction demand, there was a severe transaction congestion, causing the transaction fees to rise sharply in a short period of time, even leading to the temporary suspension of withdrawals on Binance and the temporary suspension of transactions on the Solana network.
An Endless Loop of PVP
Compared to November and December, the only large-cap projects that have emerged from the perspective of Web celebrities launching coins are TRUMP and TRUMP's wife, while the official MEME coin launched at the Wagmi MIAMI crypto conference, which is the most prestigious in the US, on January 21-24, has "zeroed out" at lightning speed in a fierce PVP; the namesake token ZACHXBT, which was "recognized" by the on-chain detective ZACHXBT, also zeroed out due to its "lack of ambition to withdraw the pool"; the slogan "America Is Back" mentioned by Trump in his inauguration speech, and the same-named meme coin "AIB" that was shared on social media, also had a lifespan of only 6 hours. The atmosphere of on-chain PVP is becoming more intense, and trading on-chain has become a "race" logic.
But when we look back at the equally active on-chain sentiment in September-November, there were numerous "large MC memecoin" emerging, such as Griffain, ARC, and Swarms with continuous iterations and updates in AI Agent; there were also tokens related to the new concept of DeSci, such as Drugs, RIF, URO, and MIRA; the "get-rich-quick myth" may only belong to $Trump for the time being.
After Trump took office as President of the United States, the only real positive news for Web3 may have been the issuance of his namesake meme token, as he did not mention the crypto market at all in his inauguration speech. After Trump took office, the only incremental capital for Web3 may have come from Moonshot's purchase of his namesake token, and his namesake token has undoubtedly drained a large amount of Web3 capital, with its market cap approaching $80 billion, while the total crypto market cap has shrunk by $20 billion. The smart money with ambition on the chain has been drained, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to meme. After all, "pulling the plate is the real angle", without money, there is no angle without pulling the plate.
Speaking of the AI Agent concept, the AI Agent concept seems to have already emerged from the "selection" stage and is entering the "elimination" stage, with many AI Agent-related tokens that could be issued already issued, like the "Hackathon Scraper Trend" a while ago: the stage of concentrated token issuance by projects that won awards at the Hackathon is over, and now it is transitioning from "0 to 1" to "1 to 100", with the market betting on which AI Agent will be the next to be listed on the exchange, and the listed AI Agents continuing to compete in terms of ecosystem technology.
CEX "Storming" DEX, Does the meme narrative still have a future?
From the current perspective, AI Agent seems to be locked in as the most important narrative of this cycle, and AI Meme is constantly evolving. Currently, the first stage of meme: GOAT ACT has been basically eliminated, belonging to the category that mainly follows the decline rather than the rise; while the second stage of AI Agent has become the most ferocious category every time the market rebounds. The "anti-VC" wave is still ongoing in this cycle, with the so-called "value coins" and "VC coins" that have recently been launched, such as SOLV and ME, mostly falling immediately after launch, and the market has no one to "take the plate" of these "value coins", and no one is even discussing "value coins" anymore.
For retail investors, the miracles of Web3 may only appear on the chain. Coins that have already been listed on exchanges have to some extent already exhausted their positive news, and in the increasingly difficult "up and down needle" hell market, it is already difficult to survive through contracts, let alone create trading miracles. The currently most active Solana network and the extremely low gas fees of the Base network have also greatly reduced the cost of entry for the vast majority of retail investors.
CEX exchanges are gradually moving away from retail investors, and by bypassing VCs and exchanges on the chain, retail investors can buy good targets at low prices. On the chain, from scratch, countless giants with market caps of tens of billions of dollars and tens of thousands of times the increase in value have been born. The chain is the future, the trading volume of DEX is gradually increasing, and perhaps one day the trading volume of DEX will exceed that of CEX.
From a more macro perspective, the narrative on the chain is far from over. Trump has not yet announced any other positive policies for crypto, and if the regulation of crypto is relaxed, more Web2 capital will flow into Web3 as incremental capital, and not only appear on exchanges, but also in more direct forms like Moonshot, continuing to produce "large MC memecoin" and "big events", driving the growth of imagination, turning PVP into PVE, and attracting Web2 with a sustained wealth effect, which is a sustainable and sexy narrative.
