Another "Mood Stimulant" on the Chain
On the evening of January 18th, US time, Trump released his own namesake token $TRUMP, causing Solana to surge nearly 50%, breaking through its previous high and approaching the $300 mark. Although it has since retreated somewhat, it has once again ignited the on-chain sentiment of the Solana network.
From the on-chain data perspective, the active address data, transaction data and other data of the Solana network have all V-shaped after the release of $TRUMP, even approaching the highest level in history. In the short term, a large amount of Web3 inventory capital and some Web2 incremental capital introduced by Moonshot have poured into the Solana network. Moonshot official stated that after being recommended as the preferred purchase method on the TRUMP website, the platform's trading volume reached $400 million in 12 hours, and more than 400,000 new users have joined the Solana ecosystem through its app, reflecting the high on-chain sentiment of the Solana network.
After the issuance of TRUMP coins, the Gas fees of the Solana network also experienced violent fluctuations. Due to the large amount of transaction demand, there was a very serious transaction congestion, causing the transaction fees to rise sharply in a short period of time, and even temporarily causing Binance to suspend the withdrawal of transactions on the exchange and the suspension of Solana network transactions.
An Endless Loop of PVP
Compared to November and December, the high-market-cap projects that have been launched by well-known Web personalities are only TRUMP and TRUMP's wife. The official MEME coin launched at the Wagmi MIAMI, the top cryptocurrency conference in the US held from January 21 to January 24, has "zeroed out" at lightning speed in a fierce PVP; the namesake token ZACHXBT of the on-chain detective ZACHXBT, which was "recognized" by the official, also zeroed out due to its "lack of ambition to withdraw the pool"; the slogan "America Is Back" mentioned by Trump in his inauguration speech, and the same-named MEME coin "AIB" that was reposted on social media, also had a life cycle of only 6 hours. The atmosphere of on-chain PVP is becoming more intense, and trading on-chain has become a "race" logic.
But when we look back at the equally active on-chain sentiment in September-November, there were countless "large MC memecoins", such as Griffain, ARC, and Swarms, which were constantly iterating and updating in the AI Agent field; there were also new concept and new angle DeSci-related tokens like Drugs, RIF, URO, and MIRA. The "myth of getting rich overnight" may only have $Trump for now.
After Trump took office as President of the United States, the only real positive news for Web3 may have been the issuance of his namesake MEME token. In his inauguration speech, he did not mention the cryptocurrency market at all. After Trump took office, the only incremental capital for Web3 may have come from Moonshot's purchase of his namesake token, and his namesake token has undoubtedly drained a large amount of Web3 capital. When the market cap of the Trump token approached $80 billion, the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market shrank by $20 billion. The smart money with ambition on the chain has been drained, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to MEME. After all, "pulling the plate is the real angle", without money, there is no angle without pulling the plate.
Speaking of the AI Agent concept, the AI Agent concept seems to have already passed the "selection" stage and is entering the "elimination" stage. Many AI Agent-related tokens that could be issued have already been issued, like the "Hackathon Scraper Trend" a while ago: the stage of projects that won awards at the Hackathon densely issuing tokens has ended, and now it is transitioning from "0 to 1" to "1 to 100". The unlistened AI Agent market is betting on which AI Agent will be listed on the exchange next, while the listed AI Agents continue to compete in ecosystem technology.
CEX "Storming" DEX, Does the MEME Narrative Still Have a Future?
From the current perspective, AI Agent has basically become the most important narrative of this cycle. AI MEME is constantly evolving. Currently, the first stage of MEME: GOAT ACT has basically been eliminated, belonging to the category that mainly follows the decline rather than the rise; while the second stage of AI Agent has become the most fierce variety during each market rebound. The "anti-VC" wave in this cycle is still ongoing, and the so-called "value coins" and "VC coins" that have been recently launched, such as SOLV and ME, have mostly fallen after listing, and the market has no one to "take over" these "value coins", and no one even discusses "value coins" anymore.
For retail investors, the miracles of Web3 may only appear on the chain. Coins that have already been listed on exchanges have to some extent already exhausted the good news, and in the increasingly difficult "up and down needle" hell market, it is already difficult to survive through the contract, let alone create trading miracles. The currently most active Solana network and the extremely low fees of the Base network have also greatly reduced the cost of entry for the vast majority of retail investors.
CEX exchanges are gradually moving away from retail investors, and retail investors can buy good targets at low prices by bypassing VCs and exchanges on the chain. Starting from zero on the chain, countless giants with market caps of tens of billions of dollars and tens of thousands of times the increase have been born. The chain is the future, the trading volume of DEX is gradually increasing, and perhaps one day the trading volume of DEX will exceed that of CEX.
From a more macro perspective, the narrative on the chain is far from over. Trump has not yet announced other positive policies for cryptocurrency. If the regulation on cryptocurrency is relaxed, more Web2 capital will flow into Web3 as incremental capital, and not only appear on exchanges, but also appear on the chain in the form of Moonshot or more direct forms, continuing to produce "large MC memecoins" and "major events", driving the growth of imagination, changing PVP into PVE, and attracting Web2 with a sustained wealth effect is a sustainable and sexy narrative.
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