- From "supporting cryptocurrencies" to "no cryptocurrencies," Trump's shift has thrown Bitcoin into the fire.
- Now, it's a battle between caution and confidence.
Bitcoin [BTC] started 2025 with volatility and resilience. Through two confrontations with the Fed, a CPI report, two memecoin launches, Trump's return and the SEC's bold announcement, BTC remains stable above 100K USD - a true testament to its strength.
However, the future is still far away. The shift from Trump's "pro-cryptocurrency" stance has pushed cryptocurrencies aside in his latest executive orders, putting BTC in a tug-of-war.
Now, investors face an important choice: Caution or dare?
Which side will prevail?
In the world of cryptocurrencies, every action creates a reaction. The TRUMP memecoin has dropped 44% at the time of writing - not by chance. The market is reacting to Trump's silence on cryptocurrencies in the 42 executive orders he signed on his first day in office.
Bitcoin is not immune to this impact. Instead of a "Trump pump" pushing BTC above 110K USD, the upward momentum has slowed down. Now, investors are taking two approaches: waiting for the "perfect dip" to jump in or HODLing through the volatility, confident that a price surge is coming.
The 3.56% increase in Bitcoin after the SEC's first "pro-cryptocurrency" move shows that confidence is still strong. But how long will it last? With market volatility and Trump's lack of action on cryptocurrencies, uncertainty is creeping in, and long-term Holders are starting to hesitate.
Source: BGeometrics
The Bitcoin supply held by long-term Holders has dropped to a three-year low, from 16.3 million to 14.5 million. This is a significant 11% decline since last year's election. These investors have taken substantial profits, with gains reaching up to 50%.
This is concerning because while short-term Holders aim for quick profits, long-term Holders keep Bitcoin stable. If they start to lose confidence, the risk of a Bitcoin collapse becomes very real.
The market may face a major disruption if the newly elected government fails to fulfill its promises. This could tip the balance from confidence to caution.
The search for a Bitcoin catalyst
As long-term Holders lose confidence, the market needs a new catalyst to absorb the increased liquidation.
Although sentiment from Trump is waning, Bitcoin ETFs are still attracting billions of dollars in Capital. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues to aggressively buy.
Source: Farside Investors
Institutional Capital is keeping BTC stable above 100K USD, maintaining confidence, while retail investors are providing momentum, driven by FOMO.
But time is running out. The cryptocurrency market is still betting on Trump's promises, and with the FOMC meeting just a week away, expectations are high.
If no action is taken, a major volatility could push BTC below 100K USD.
