Author:Jeff Park
Compiled by: TechFlow
Memecoins may be a zero-sum game at the economic level, but their social impact goes far beyond that. Think about poker, another typical zero-sum game, where skilled players not only stand out in the game, but can also create more value outside the game through their fame. Similarly, although the launch of the $MIRA Token may also be a zero-sum game, those who have contributed to the medical research funding narrative have gained undeniable social value. If you think the meaning of the game is merely to pursue economic interests, you have underestimated the real reasons why people participate in the game.
Memecoin trading also requires skills. For example, the top-tier quantitative fund Renaissance Technologies does not focus on the actual performance of stocks, but rather focuses on how to leverage technological advantages to profit. Similarly, the best Memecoin traders are also working to optimize blockchain latency to gain an advantage in information acquisition and trade execution, similar to how Virtu Financial or Citadel Securities profit from limit orders in the traditional market.
Some are concerned that Memecoins will damage the overall reputation of cryptocurrencies, but in fact, this concern has already been surpassed by the development of the market. For example, the Trump SPAC once experienced price fluctuations of over 100%; the best performing ETF in 2024 is a 2x leveraged Nvidia ETF (NVDA ETF), which is essentially a volatility tool; and ODTE (options expiring on the same day) now dominates index trading. Regulators have long since acquiesced to the gamification of the market, and in comparison, Memecoins are just "a small magician seeing a great magician".
So why does the $TRUMP token attract so much attention? The popularity of Memecoins essentially depends on the attention economy, and Trump is undoubtedly a top driver of cultural influence. Just as the popularity of $DOGE is inseparable from Musk's personal charisma, Trump, with his strong self-awareness and marketing talent, may try to make his token surpass $DOGE and even challenge Bitcoin. His token set a new record for on-chain trading volume at launch, fully demonstrating the market's huge interest and potential for growth.
This reminds me of the "asymmetry under zero interest rates." When market volatility increases, the upside potential can be more prominent because potential gains can grow infinitely, while losses are capped. The Trump token achieved a 372-fold surge in 36 hours, equivalent to a volatility of 485,028% - making $TRUMP a seemingly reasonable speculative choice.
To win this game, you need to master Elliot Wave theory, Wyckoff method and Kelly Criterion, and also understand that $TRUMP will inevitably experience another peak.
(TechFlow note: Elliot Wave theory is like observing the "ebb and flow" of the market. It believes that the changes in market prices are patterned, just like the waves, with rises and falls, and these waves will form certain patterns; Wyckoff method can be seen as a "detective tool for the market". It helps you observe the "supply and demand relationship" in the market, and judge whether the market will rise or fall next by analyzing the changes in price and trading volume; Kelly Criterion is like a "betting guide". It tells you how much capital you should invest in each investment or trade to earn more while not taking too much risk.)
Of course, $TRUMP may face hacker attacks, massive sell-offs, or be replaced by $BARRON airdrops. But these don't matter - its essence is a meme. What really matters is the process of participation and the experience you gain from it.
As for whether this is good or bad for the overall development of cryptocurrencies, that is not the key. The key is how to find those "risk-resistant" assets and improve your ability to obtain non-correlated, risk-adjusted returns. $TRUMP is just such an opportunity, combining the characteristics of cryptocurrencies, cultural intellectual property, and professional speculation, even if it may eventually go to zero.
I will continue to bet on the long-term trend of so-called "social entertainment", which actually provides diversification opportunities for my portfolio. I believe there must be a perfect meme that can accurately capture the current zeitgeist of this trend.
So the question is: have you found it?
