Over the past week, the BTC price has generally shown an upward trend. Affected by macroeconomic data (US dollar index, non-farm data, CPI), market information (such as the US Department of Justice being allowed to liquidate the BTC seized in the Silk Road case), and political factors (Trump's inauguration), the BTC price fluctuated greatly in the past week, with the lowest dropping below $90,000 and the highest reaching $109,588, setting a new ATH. The current BTC price is around $102,000 (the above data is the real-time data of Binance spot 15:00).
On the one hand, the Trump family-led TRUMP MEME Coin is sweeping the market, on the other hand, Trump's inauguration ceremony did not mention crypto assets, and the market generally believes that this week will be an exciting and closely watched one. The executive orders signed by Trump in quick succession not only relate to the subsequent trend of crypto assets, but also determine the future development of global macro assets.
Market Analysis
BTC adoption rate exceeds the Internet and mobile phones, and the enthusiasm for crypto assets continues to rise
A report released by BlackRock on January 14 shows that the adoption rate of BTC has surpassed that of past transformative technologies, including the Internet and mobile phones. The report emphasizes that since its launch in 2009, BTC has rapidly evolved from a niche innovation to a globally recognized asset. Trends such as rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the traditional banking system have highlighted the value of BTC as a decentralized asset. As the global economy becomes more digitized, BTC is becoming an indispensable part of the evolving financial landscape. At the same time, the younger generation's familiarity with technology and preference for digital-first solutions make them the leading adopters of cryptocurrencies.
Crypto asset Google search index hits a new high
On January 21, Google Trends data showed that the search volume for "How to buy crypto" reached a historic high of 100. This is the first ATH in 4 years, and the search volume for "How to buy trump coin" has continued to rise.
After the $TRUMP price surge, a trust crisis may trigger a MEME coin frenzy
On the eve of Trump's inauguration, his team issued $TRUMP, which sparked a market frenzy. The astronomical rate of increase, the listing on compliant exchanges, and the market's expectations for the "crypto president" reached a peak, and the influence of the United States in this round of the upward cycle also increased significantly. Against the backdrop of the crypto market and the public's expectation that Trump may introduce crypto-friendly policies, Trump's team launched a new MEME coin $MELANIA, which shocked the market, and $TRUMP also plummeted.
As the market acceptance of crypto assets such as BTC increases, how to maintain the standardization of crypto investment is an issue that the market needs to solve. The implication behind $MELANIA taking over $TRUMP is self-evident, and the naked "opportunism" combined with the previous explosion that drained market liquidity, where will the next market catalyst be?
Industry Dynamics
Trump has officially taken office, and this term begins against the backdrop of extremely strong economic performance in the United States, with market inflation awaiting resolution. At the same time, opportunities come with risks, and the market generally believes that Trump may appear more unstable but direct policies in areas such as tariffs, immigration, fiscal spending, and even personnel changes.
CPI & non-farm data are positive, and the global market closed steadily last week
On January 11, the data showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the US rose, but the number of layoffs was at a low level in the market, and the overall job market showed resilience and health. On January 15, the US CPI data was released. The unadjusted year-on-year core CPI in December was 3.2%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.30%, a new low since August 2024; the unadjusted year-on-year CPI in the US in December was 2.9%, in line with market expectations. The cooling of core CPI has alleviated the market's concerns about rising inflation in the US, and the global market has reacted quickly. However, the Fed still faces a loose financial situation, a strong underlying economy, and a thorny inflation problem.
Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada before February 1
On Monday evening, Trump responded to reporters' questions, saying: "We are considering a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada because they allow a large number of people to enter the US, and I think we will implement it by February 1." Both Mexico and Canada have stated that if Trump imposes tariffs on them, they will retaliate against US goods. Trump's proposed tariffs on neighboring countries could have a "disastrous" impact on the US auto industry and Detroit automakers, as they import a large number of vehicles from Canada and Mexico.
Trump described Canada as a "very bad abuser" and complained about the influx of fentanyl and immigrants from the northern border. At the same time, Trump did not indicate that he would immediately impose tariffs on China, and the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets seemed to "breathe a sigh of relief." The offshore renminbi fell slightly by 0.2%, but maintained most of the gains from Monday.
The US is embracing crypto assets, and multiple states have submitted BTC-related bills
The SEC is prepared to immediately push forward crypto policy reforms after Trump takes office.
On January 15, Reuters reported that senior Republican officials at the SEC are preparing to begin reforming the agency's cryptocurrency policies as early as next week after Trump takes office. The information indicates that Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are considering measures, including initiating relevant procedures to ultimately formulate guidance or rules to clarify under what circumstances the agency will view cryptocurrencies as securities, and review some ongoing cryptocurrency enforcement cases in court.
At the same time, a Texas state senator submitted the SB 778 bill to establish a state-level Bitcoin strategic reserve; a Wyoming state representative submitted a legislative proposal for a strategic Bitcoin reserve; and Massachusetts has also introduced two bills related to a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
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