Author: @DoveyWan, Founder of Primitive Ventures
Compiled by: Bai Hua Blockchain
In the past 24 hours, we have witnessed two historically significant moments. On the one hand, TikTok has become a victim in the ongoing new Cold War between the US and China; on the other hand, the US President has launched his own Altcoin, based on a currency network that was once marginalized and seen as a breeding ground for scams. These two events occurred on the same day, representing the perfect intersection of geopolitical tensions and financial populism.
I am confident about the future of this industry, as it is the most sovereign and global, permissionless experimental field, but I also want to remind everyone that caution is needed in the current cycle stage, as there are too many signs indicating that this "orgiastic violence" is similar to the pattern that led to the "end of violence" in previous cycles.
1. Politicized Financial Populism
While we are witnessing the "orgiastic violence" phenomenon associated with $TRUMP, we also notice the dynamics in the East Asian market: the offshore exchange rate of USDT against the Chinese yuan has reached a historical high, reflecting the huge demand for crypto assets in the Chinese mainland's over-the-counter market. This is the first time in this cycle that we have seen a large-scale FOMO sentiment among ordinary Chinese retail investors, far exceeding previous hot spots such as Bitcoin NFTs and Ordinals. In the previous cycle, DeFi and GameFi attracted globally converging liquidity; NFTs initially focused on Western liquidity, and then introduced Eastern liquidity. In this cycle, on-chain Altcoins were initially concentrated on assets more inclined towards American retail, such as Base and Solana, but with the emergence of $TRUMP, global liquidity is now accelerating its convergence.
In the local peer-to-peer over-the-counter market, the price of USDT/CNY continues to soar.
2. Dynamics in the Western Market
In the Western market, Moonshot has been overwhelmed by a surge of users rapidly entering the Solana ecosystem through its platform, causing it to top the rankings. This pattern is very similar to the previous cycle, when Moonpay's fiat-to-crypto on-ramp led to a large influx of funds into the ETH network, which then directly flowed into OpenSea.
Coinbase has already sold out of SOL, leading to severe withdrawal delays. This also validates my earlier prediction: centralized exchanges (CEXs) will play a more "ATM-like" role in the long-term on-chain economy. Similar to the previous cycle's DeFi explosion and NFT frenzy driving the acceleration of ETH scaling solutions, the Phantom wallet has also experienced a massive surge of over 8 million requests per minute, a level that this $3 billion infrastructure was clearly unprepared for.
We are undoubtedly in the depths of a bull market, but only a few Altcoins have reached new all-time highs. This is both a sign of the industry's gradual maturity and one of the "upstream traffic depletion" signs I pointed out last year. The arrival of the Trump "new order" will undoubtedly create some opportunities, but when the market relies too heavily on the "topic-driven" (pupamental) leadership of a few individuals, sustainability is at risk.
3. Distorted Starfields and Binary Black Hole Systems
When financial populism is politicized, it becomes like a binary black hole system - two massive gravitational sources interacting, engaging in a powerful "dance". Just as this cosmic phenomenon distorts the surrounding starfields through extreme gravitational lensing, dragging space-time itself into chaos, we are also witnessing various forms of unrest distorting the real world. Social discontent is rising, tensions are becoming more apparent, and the level of chaos is reaching new historical highs. History has repeatedly shown that "orgiastic violence" often ends in the "end of violence", but this time, we have the opportunity to choose a different monetary orbit/resource allocation path that may lead to a more peaceful solution.
4. Missed 100x Opportunities
In the ten years since I entered this industry, I have never "become an overnight millionaire". I have missed countless opportunities that could have yielded 100x returns, but that's okay. The temptation of massive, rapid returns is undoubtedly irresistible, but sustainable success comes from self-awareness, understanding which game you should be playing. In the long run, as long as you keep accumulating, the market will eventually present the next 100x opportunity that fits your strengths. This is the advice I gave to @ManoppoMarco, helping him face the first 100x opportunity he missed as a crypto investor.
5. Leverage Your Strengths
If your talent lies in being a Altcoin PvP player or a nimble trend trader, then embrace that strength and continuously improve your competitiveness. Take @0xWangarian Darryl and his Pigeon account as an example. Although some people dismiss him as a "rich kid cosplayer who makes money by dumping", those familiar with his background and track record know that he is passionate about his rigorous trading execution methods and market analysis, just like any dedicated professional trader.
For those "trench warriors" who have achieved "effortless eight-figure" gains in the Altcoin realm, don't overlook the immense effort behind their boastful profit statements. Countless sleepless nights on-chain, endless market research, and a deep passion for this craft are what truly drive these life-changing results.
I have the utmost respect for these trench warriors. The crypto space is still one of the few battlefields where, with just an internet connection, a strong will, and deep insights, anyone can achieve financial breakthroughs. It is a meritocratic battlefield where hard work and skills can still rewrite one's origins.
However, if this is not your strength, blindly chasing the "orgiastic violence" may be a destructive game. Unless it aligns with your strengths, money will never come easily. Understanding who you are, which game suits you, and which trench you belong to is the foundation of growth. The market has its own rhythm, but success lies in finding your own melody and confidently dancing to it.
6. The Non-Violent Conclusion
From the "pen mightier than the sword" of the 19th century to the "software is eating the world" of the early 21st century, we are now at the intersection of a transformative trend:
Binary code is evolving into monetary code
Machine programs are reshaping the social contract
Human language is becoming programming language
Each major socioeconomic transformation is achieved through the "harvesting of entropy" - establishing a new order, often in the form of a new value chain, that fundamentally changes the way humans economically and politically collaborate. For example, the Industrial Revolution redefined the social contract through machine programs; the rise of the internet and the crypto-protected digital assets (native internet currencies) have transformed binary code into monetary code. Now, we are entering a new era where human language itself is evolving into a programming language, giving individuals the opportunity not only to become "10x enhanced" but to achieve "100x capability" breakthroughs.
The future has already quietly unfolded, but the development is uneven. Those who dare to invest in the early stages of the hype curve, can combine Eastern and Western resources and perspectives, and possess a global mindset, will undoubtedly become the protagonists of this era, writing their own historical chapters.
