Author: flowie, ChainCatcher
Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher
With less than 3 hours before Trump's official inauguration, around 1 am Beijing time on the 21st, Trump will take the oath of office and deliver his inaugural address.
On the eve of the inauguration, Trump and his wife have been issuing Altcoins, which has left the industry both inside and outside amazed and has caused a major upheaval in the crypto industry. Tonight's inaugural address by Trump and the policies he plans to announce are expected to bring further volatility to the crypto market.
In recent days, multiple analysis agencies and media outlets have released forecasts on Trump's inauguration ceremony and the post-market outlook, with Trump concept Altcoins and US institution concept Altcoins once again becoming hot trading topics.
What are the concept Altcoins worth focusing on around Trump's inauguration?
Last weekend, the personal meme Altcoin TRUMP issued by Trump's official and the personal meme Altcoin MELANIA issued by his wife Melania have benefited a large number of meme users. Although the market has been in constant controversy over the president's family issuing Altcoins in succession, the expected celebrity Altcoin craze brought by Trump is bound to become a direction that meme Altcoin players cannot afford to miss in the near future.
Whether other members of the Trump family, presidents of other countries, and industry leaders represented by Musk will issue Altcoins next may become the focus of attention for meme players.
In addition to celebrity meme Altcoins, the Trump family's projects, the participating projects of the official crypto ball of the inauguration ceremony and the first government, the new team appointed by Trump, and the related concept Altcoins of the US capital and US domestic startups, are also expected to be hot trading topics in the near future. ChainCatcher has made a brief review of the relevant tokens.
Trump and family-related meme Altcoins: TRUMP, MELANIA. In addition, the keywords in Trump's inauguration speech are worth paying attention to, as Trump's speeches in the past have often produced popular meme phrases.
Trump family concept Altcoins: The DeFi project of the Trump family, World Liberty Financial, with the token WLFI. This project has been very active, adding 5% to the supply today and purchasing multiple ENS domain names.
In addition, after the launch of Trump's official meme Altcoin TRUMP, WLFI has purchased a large amount of ETH, with its Ethereum holdings reaching over 41,000, worth about $140 million as of the time of writing. Eric Trump, Trump's son, also retweeted a tweet about WLFI's large ETH purchase today and hinted at "major moves" tomorrow.
The project has purchased ONDO, ENA, ETH, LINK, AAVE, and cbBTC. WLFI tokens are mainly purchased using CowSwap (COW). These Altcoins have previously risen due to their association with the Trump family. Eric Trump recently disclosed that he holds BTC, ETH, SOL and SUI.
Sponsoring projects for the inauguration ceremony and crypto ball: TRON, Ripple, Anchorage, Kraken, Sui, MetaMask, Galaxy, Ondo (ONDO), Solana, Etoro, Uniswap and crypto listed companies Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Marathon Digital, Nano Labs, Exodus, Metaplanet.
Recommended reading: 《Here's Every Crypto Firm That Shelled Out for Trump's Inauguration》
Concept Altcoins of the new Trump administration:
Musk-related concepts: Dogecoin DOGE, meme Altcoin Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with the same abbreviation as the government efficiency department, PNUT
Concepts related to White House AI and crypto chief David Sacks: DYDX, HNS, ZRX
Concepts related to the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins: RSR
Recommended reading: 《Ambushing the "Trump Inauguration Rally"? A Review of the New Government's Crypto Team and Related Concept Altcoins》
US capital Altcoins: Previously, ChainCatcher has reviewed the issuing projects associated with traditional asset managers like BlackRock, mainly including Ondo, CRV, ENA, LINK, XLM, VELO, SUI, APT, Avax, PUFFER, etc. In addition, Grayscale's holdings and the Altcoins selected by the Coinbase 50 index are also worth watching.
Recommended reading:《US Capital Altcoins Leading the Rally, Reviewing 18 Issuing Projects Associated with BlackRock and Other Traditional Asset Managers》
《Grayscale's Q1 2025 Selection: 20 Altcoins with High Growth Potential》
US domestic project Altcoins: XRP, Solana, LTC, LINK, UNI, MKR, SUI, COMP, etc.
Recommended reading:《After Bitcoin Reaches 10k, What Altcoins to Buy? —— Buy US Altcoins》
What crypto policy expectations are there for Trump's inaugural address?
Recently, Trump has mentioned crypto in multiple public interviews, adding more expectations for the crypto market outlook. In an interview with CNBC, Trump said he would do some great things through cryptocurrencies.
Major media outlets and agencies have also revealed some expected crypto policies after Trump's inauguration. In summary, there are the following points:
1. At least one executive order related to the crypto industry will be issued on the day of Trump's inauguration. This news mainly comes from reports by Reuters and The Washington Post citing informed sources, and later Nikolaus Hoffman, a columnist for Bitcoin Magazine, also predicted that Trump would issue an executive order on Bitcoin and crypto accounting on his first day in office.
According to Bloomberg, the executive order may position cryptocurrencies as a "matter of national importance", elevating cryptocurrencies as a national policy priority, aiming to guide government agencies to cooperate with the industry, and establish a cryptocurrency advisory council to speak for the industry.
The Washington Post, on the other hand, stated that the content involves abolishing the controversial crypto accounting policy and terminating "de-banking". This policy requires banks that custody cryptocurrencies to list these crypto assets on their balance sheets and record corresponding liabilities of equal value on the liability side, increasing the financial pressure on financial institutions in providing crypto asset custody services.
2. The SEC is expected to immediately push forward crypto policy reform after Trump takes office. Reuters reported that Trump's SEC team has reviewed pending crypto enforcement cases in court, and is expected to undertake a comprehensive reform of crypto policy, possibly freezing some lawsuits that do not involve fraud allegations. Two informed sources said that the SEC's Republican senior officials are preparing to start reforming the agency's crypto currency policy as early as next week after Trump takes office.
Two of the informed sources said that Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are considering measures including initiating relevant procedures to eventually formulate guidance or rules clarifying under what circumstances the agency will treat cryptocurrencies as securities, and reviewing some ongoing crypto enforcement cases in court. This news has impacted projects that have had run-ins with the SEC, such as XRP, which rose 17% on the day.
Here is the English translation of the text, with the content within <> retained and not translated:3. Trump is "open-minded" about the project of the United States purchasing Altcoins (such as Solana, USD Coin and Ripple) created in the United States as strategic reserves. The New York Post, citing sources, said that in recent weeks, Trump has met with the founders of these cryptocurrencies, he accepts the idea, but at the same time is also concerned that this move may undermine the legitimacy of efforts to promote Bitcoin.
This news has already led to a significant rise in Solana and XRP. However, the idea of the United States purchasing Altcoins as strategic reserves faces controversy, with Quinn Thompson, founder of the hedge fund Lekker Capital, stating this morning that it is a ridiculous idea that will never happen.
In addition to the revelations or forecasts of the major media and institutions mentioned above, reviewing Trump's cryptocurrency commitments during the 2024 election campaign (as shown in the table below), the focus of the crypto market is whether Trump will immediately launch a national Bitcoin reserve or the policy direction after taking office.
According to Cointelegraph, there are currently 8 states leading the way in pushing for Bitcoin strategic reserve bills, including Florida, Alabama, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Zach Pandl, Managing Director of Grayscale Research, also stated today that Bitcoin is expected to become a reserve asset for the United States by 2025.
The promise to dismiss the SEC chairman has also been preliminarily fulfilled, as Trump has previously nominated Paul Atkins as the new SEC chairman. Recently, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis met with SEC chairman nominee Paul Atkins to discuss digital asset legislation and rule-making reform. She hinted at the possibility of future changes and jokingly said she wants to "slim down" the SEC (i.e., streamline and reform it).
Polymarket's Predictions on Trump's Crypto Announcements and New Policies
As of the editorial deadline, there is nearly $840,000 bet on Polymarket on whether Trump will mention his official meme TRUMP during the inauguration ceremony, but the current probability is only 8%.
In addition, there is nearly $7.2 million bet on Polymarket that the elected President Trump will mention specific keywords related to cryptocurrencies in his January 20th inauguration speech.
Among them, users have bet over $3.87 million that Trump will mention "cryptocurrency" or "Bitcoin" in his speech, and over $650,000 that he will mention "Doge/Dogecoin". The probability of "cryptocurrency" and "Bitcoin" being mentioned is 46%, and the probability of "Doge/Dogecoin" is 11%.
The probability of Trump issuing a crypto executive order on the day of his inauguration reaches 40%, with a trading volume of over $190,000 for this prediction contract.
The probabilities on Polymarket for Trump establishing a national Bitcoin strategy within a week, 100 days, or by 2025 are 11%, 57%, and 63% respectively.
Regarding the news reported by The Washington Post about Altcoins such as XRP and Solana potentially being used as strategic reserves, there are also corresponding prediction contracts on Polymarket, but the current probabilities are only 18%.
What is the Impact of Trump Issuing a Coin on the Crypto Market?
A direct impact of Trump issuing a meme coin is that it has driven more new users to enter the market. For example, Moonshot attracted over 400,000 new users within 24 hours of the TRUMP coin listing, as Moonshot supports fiat currency purchases of memes, and it is expected that many users outside the crypto circle have joined.
Furthermore, Trump's issuance of a meme coin has shifted the attention of the crypto market, which may pose challenges to other tracks such as CEXs and AI agents.
Bybit CEO BEN reflected on X platform that all CEXs have seen a large outflow of SOL and USDC, flowing into on-chain purchases of TRUMP. Moonshoot + Meteora/Jupiter created over 300 billion in memecoin in less than 10 hours, without any CEX.
In 2025, he will focus on building On-chain Bybit and heavily investing in Bybit's web3 wallet, as he believes that if he does not join this revolution, he will be eliminated.
The emerging potential track represented by AI agents is one of the tracks that has been most severely "bloodsucked" by TRUMP. Mint Ventures research partner Alex Xu mentioned that most AI Agent tokens may face not just a correction, but a long-term collapse in valuation.
At the same time, there are also some tracks and projects that have benefited from this. For example, projects that sell water to speculators, including Solana, Moonshot, various TG BOTs, as well as DEXs like Raydium.
The report released by QCP today also mentioned that the deployment of the Trump Meme on the Solana chain is seen as an endorsement of the chain, which may accelerate the approval of the SOL ETF and drive the rise of Altcoins.
However, whether Trump's move is positive or negative for the future of crypto is currently a point of contention in the market. Optimists or supporters believe this is a paradigm shift in cryptocurrencies, reopening the door for crypto to go mainstream.
Bernstein analysts stated that this marks the arrival of a new era of regulation, with the U.S. government viewing cryptocurrencies as a technology for direct engagement with the public. Folius Capital founder Jason believes that Trump's issuance of a coin has epochal significance, basically telling you that issuing a coin is not a problem, and he estimates that there will be 1-2 more top-tier projects launching coins in the next month.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also stated that the Trump administration has accepted the free market model, and the next four years may witness a crypto community experiment driven by Memes, which is an unstoppable trend that is expected to continue until 2028.
There are also some voices of concern and skepticism in the market. 1confirmation founder Nick Tomainon criticized that Trump holds 80% of the TRUMP coin supply and launched it just hours before the inauguration, calling it predatory and likely to harm many people. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, also stated that this is detrimental to the industry and compared it to the level of corruption of former Ugandan President Idi Amin.
AllianceDAO co-founder QiaoWang believes that Trump has two choices: announce his token for some fiscal policy - buying Greenland, aiding Los Angeles, upgrading the power grid, etc.; or do nothing and just keep making money. The former will make the world talk about cryptocurrencies as the greatest capital formation mechanism in history, and it is being used for good causes, ushering in the golden age of cryptocurrencies; the latter is a crime.
Hoskinson also believes that the Trump administration may redefine the IRS's policies on capital gains tax and fair market valuation of digital assets, and these expected changes may impact the regulatory framework of the cryptocurrency industry.
Market Outlook: High Short-term Volatility, BTC to Rise Significantly by 2025
Although Trump's issuance of a meme coin has caused BTC to also suffer from "bloodsucking" and decline, BTC's rebound has also been relatively fast, reaching close to $110,000 as of the editorial deadline.
When Trump officially takes office, will Bitcoin encounter "sell the news" and profit-taking? Pantera Capital portfolio manager Cosmo Jiang said that in the short term, there may be some "sell the news" behavior, but those who do so are only seeing the trees and not the forest, expressing a long-term bullish sentiment.
However, Trump's subsequent policies may have both positive and negative impacts on crypto. Bloomberg reported that speculators are weighing the risks of inflation tariffs and immigration policies against Trump's promise to make the United States a global center for digital assets, supporting the idea of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. K33 analysts also stated that the market is trying to weigh the impacts of these major policies, namely the inflationary effect of Trump's tariff rhetoric and the potentially favorable crypto policies that are expected to boost risk assets this year.
The formal inauguration of Trump will also bring greater volatility to the cryptocurrency market in 2025. QCP Capital expects increased market volatility around the inauguration ceremony, and QCP Capital will remain cautious about downside risks. It said the $90,000 level for Bitcoin has been tested multiple times. The stock market also appears fragile, and rising global bond yields could trigger chaotic and gapped market movements.
LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger said in a report that Bitcoin's volatile performance this week suggests an unstable start for cryptocurrencies in 2025. He said Bitcoin's recent volatility is mainly related to the volatility of traditional market sentiment, and the correlation between crypto assets and the US stock market has become stronger. "Although there is a lot to be said for Bitcoin's rebound in safe-haven trades, the market for trading Bitcoin as a risk asset remains very active, and Bitcoin may fall when the stock market sells off."
But the market remains optimistic about the price trend of BTC in 2025.
Based on the forecasts of multiple institutions summarized by AI, the expected highest price range of BTC in 2025 is between $150,000 and $1 million, with around $150,000 being the more widely publicized price. The specific forecasts are as follows:
- CoinShares: Expects the price range of Bitcoin to be between $80,000 and $150,000.
- Galaxy Digital: Expects Bitcoin to break through $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and reach $50,000 in the fourth quarter.
- Standard Chartered Bank: Expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Matrixport: Expects Bitcoin to reach $160,000 in 2025.
- Bit Mining: Expects Bitcoin to reach between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025.
- Bernstein: Expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Rich Dad Robert Kiyosaki: Expects Bitcoin to surge to $350,000 in 2025.
- Blockware Solutions: Expects Bitcoin to break through $150,000 in mid-2025 and reach $50,000 at the end of the year in the base case, and even $400,000 in the optimistic case.
- Professor Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex: Expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in the summer of 2025 and may further challenge the $200,000 high.
- Bernstein Research: Bitcoin price may reach as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- CryptoQuant: Trump's policies may drive Bitcoin to $90,000 in 2025.
- PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model: BTC is expected to reach $1 million.
